MS Risk Blog

Twenty-First Century Soviet Union: Could Moscow be Looking Towards Annexing States in Eastern Europe?

With the annexation of Crimea, there have been growing Western concerns of the rising number of Russian troops along the country’s eastern border with Ukraine.   Although Moscow has denied that President Vladimir Putin has an ambitious plan to resurrect vestiges of the Soviet empire and stamp his authority over eastern European nations that sought protection from the West following the 1989 fall of the Berlin wall, the presence of 30,000 troops stationed along the border is nevertheless alarming.  Furthermore, while Moscow originally stated that it was intervening in Crimea because of concerns over the ill-treatment of Russians there, who make up more than half of the population, since Crimea’s annexation, Russia has done little to ease Eastern European fears of further takeovers.  The question now remains, could similar action take place in other parts of the former Soviet Union?

Eastern Ukraine

Since the ouster of Ukrainian President Victor Yanukovych in February 2014, there have been frequent pro-Russian demonstrations that have taken place in Donetsk as well as in other cities in eastern Ukraine.  So far, at least one person has been killed.  Russians however have blamed far-right pro-Western demonstrators for escalating tensions throughout the country.

With Russian troops having staged military exercises near the border, and Ukrainian officials claiming Thursday that 100,000 Russian forces have massed on Ukraine’s border, it would not be difficult for them to move across into Ukraine itself.

If Putin is indeed considering more territorial expansion, than eastern Ukraine is likely to be high on his list.  The political costs however would be high, with NATO and Western leaders already warning Moscow against further expansionism.

Although Crimea, which was previously Russian territory, became part of the Ukraine in 1954, Ukraine’s eastern border goes back much further, ties which could be used by Putin in any possible future take overs.

Moldova

A great deal of attention has also focused on Trans-Dniester, a separatist region of Moldova, which has already offered itself to Moscow.  Proclaiming independence in 1990, which has never been recognised internationally, Trans-Dniester is majority Russian-speaking while most Moldovans speak Romanian.  NATO’s commander in Europe has warned that Trans-Dneister may be Russia’s next target as Moscow has already deployed 1,000 troops to the region, which borders Ukraine, near the city of Odessa.

The southern region of Gagauzia, an autonomous region of Moldova which is made up of four enclaves with a total population of 160,000 also held a referendum in February 2014, in which 98.4% of voters backed integration with a Russia-led customs union.  The Moldovan government has stated that the referendum was illegitimate.

Georgia

Russia’s 2008 brief war with Georgia resulted in two areas breaking away, South Ossetia and Abkhazi.  Although Abkhazia had already declared independence unilaterally in 1999, since the 2008 war, the two enclaves have existed in a grey zone as they are not recognized internationally, nor are they formally are part of Russia.  Although Moscow’s stated aim at the time was to protect Russian speakers, most residents are native speakers of Ossetian and Abkhaz respectively.  Furthermore, most residents hold Russian passports and are opposed to the Georgian government in Tbilisi.

Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania

Although the Baltic republics regained their independence following the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990’s, Russians account for about a third of the population in both Estonia and Latvia.  Due to the fact that both Latvia and Estonia require knowledge of their languages in order to gain citizenship, some Russian speakers born in the countries are either unable or unwilling to become citizens.  Many Russian speakers have complained of discrimination, stating that the strict language laws make it difficult for them to get jobs.  This treatment was echoed by the Kremlin in mid-March of this year, with officials expressing “outrage” at the treatment of ethnic Russians in Estonia, the same reason, which they gave for intervening in Crimea.       

In Lithuania, ethnic Russians make up about 5% of the population and there is no requirement for them to pass a language test in order to attain citizenship.

However what must be noted is that in the case of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, all three Baltic states are members of both the European Union and NATO.  Therefore any Russian incursion would have serious consequences as article 5 of the NATO treaty states that an attack on one member state is an attack on all.

Belarus 

Currently, there is no reason why Russia would seek to intervene in Belarus as the country is already closely aligned with Moscow.  Furthermore, Belarus is an economic union with Russia, and Russian is an official language.  Although only 8.3% of the population identifies itself as Russian, more than 70% speak the language.

Northern Kazakhstan 

Ties between Russia and Kazakhstan go back to tsarist times, when northern cities such as Pavlodar and Uralsk were founded by the Russians as military outposts.  Russians currently account for more than half of the population in northern Kazakhstan which, like Crimea, was once a part of Russia itself.

Like Ukraine, Kazakhstan signed an agreement on nuclear disarmament in 1994 in exchange for protection.  It has no port like Sevastopol in Crimea, however it does have the Baikonur space facility.

Although Kazakhstan already has close ties with Russia, as it is one of two other members, along with Belarus, of Moscow’s customs union, it has remained officially neutral in the matter of Ukraine.

Other Central Asian Republics

After independence in 1991, large numbers of Russians emigrated to central Asia, with the percentage of ethnic Russians in the region now ranging from 1.1% in Tajikistan to 12.5% in Kyrgyzstan.  However it must be noted that the Central Asian economies remain tied to Russia, bot in terms of trade and remittances from migrants working there.

While it therefore seems unlikely that Moscow would seek to intervene in the region, the post-Crimea turmoil could still have an affect on the area.  As the Russian rouble falls, and sanctions hit Russian businesses, jobless migrants returning from Russia could cause trouble for the governments in Dushanbe or Bishkek.

Armenia and Azerbaijan 

Although Armenia has no Russian population to speak of, and Azerbaijan has just 1%, both countries tread a geopolitical tightrope between Russia and the West.  Furthermore, since Aremenia gained its independence in 1991, Russia has retained a military base at Gyumri.

As was the case in Ukraine, Armenia had been preparing to sign an association agreement with the EU, however in September 2013, officials in the country announced that Armenia would be joining the Russian-led customs union instead.

Azerbaijan on the other hand is less economically dependent on Russia as it exports oil and natural gas to the EU.  A pipeline that ends in Turkey effectively allows it to skirt Russian territory.

Russia would like to keep both countries in its sphere of influence, however in the case of Armenia and Azerbaijan, Russia is more likely to use economic, as opposed to military, measures.

Poland and the Baltics

Outside of Russia’s direct neighbours, countries such as Poland and those in the Baltics have also caused unease, with a sense that they too are under threat.

Poland

Although leaders in Poland have played down the danger, repeatedly reassuring the public, there remains a widespread sense of insecurity throughout the country.

While during an event to celebrate the 15^th anniversary of Poland joining NATO, Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated that he saw no direct threat to his country, a view that has been echoed by Poland’s President Bronislaw Komorowski, an opinion poll has shown that 59% of respondents believed Russia’s foreign policy presented a threat to Poland’s security.  Some have stated that they “…feel threatened by Russia because we’re next.  Ukraine is first, then the Baltic countries and then Russia’s President Putin will make something bad here.”  These fears have been echoed across the country, with one resident stating “now they want to attack Ukraine but we are neighbours so I don’t think Poland is safe, especially because we have a shred history with Russia, and they were always aggressors.”  While these remarks to not directly indicate that most Poles fear that Russia is about to launch a military attack on the, their shared history however has generated a widespread mistrust of Russia and its leadership.

During the 18^th century Catherine the Great annexed eastern Poland, with the country not regaining its independence until the end of World War One.  However after just two decades of freedom, the Soviet Union invaded eastern Poland just two weeks after Nazi Germany marched into western Poland in 1939.  While the Red Army liberated Poland from the Nazis in 1945, this liberation was seen by many as a simple transfer of power, from one enemy to the next.  Upon removing Nazi troops out of Poland, Joseph Stalin quickly installed a Soviet-backed communist system throughout the country, with the last Soviet troops leaving Poland in 1993.

According to Marcin Zaborowski, director of the Polish Institute of International Affairs, “…there is a sense that certain boundaries have been crossed, that precedents have been created and because of that its not clear where Putin is going to stop,” adding that “this clearly unprovoked aggression against another state is in breach of international law.  It doesn’t seem wise to hang on to the belief Putin’s not going to go further.”

Poland’s growing insecurity however is not solely tied to the country, but is also shared by the Baltic countries, which were also incorporated into the Soviet Union after World War Two.

Baltic States

Lithuania’s President Dalia Grybauskaite warned last week that Russia was trying to redraw the post-war map of Europe, adding that while Ukraine is likely to be the next on Putin’s list, Moldova, the Baltics and Poland would be next.

Estonia and Latvia both have large Russian minorities, which is of concern considering Putin’s justification for occupying Crimea has been to protect ethnic Russians there.

Military Boost 

In response of growing fears of a possible Russian takeover of Poland and/or the Baltics, the United States has announced that it is increasing its military cooperation with Poland and the Baltic states.  Officials have indicated that the US is sending six more F-15 fighters and a KC-135 refuelling tanker to increase its support for NATO’s patrolling of Baltic airspace.

In Poland, about 300 US air force personnel and 12 US F-16 fighters will be deployed for a joint training exercise.  This is a significant boost to the 10 US airmen who are already stationed in the country.  However the United States response will not solely focus on military aspects, but will also concentrate on the energy issue, which has developed out of the Ukrainian crisis.  According to sources in Poland, “our prime minister and president have said we have to work more intensely towards energy independence.  Energy is vital because the threat is not just of a military nature, its also about turning the gas taps off.”  Poland has already experienced this switch-off as much of Russia’s gas supplies to Europe transit Ukraine while on its way West.  In 2009, a price dispute between the Ukraine and Russia halted supplies to many European countries.

Despite the 2009 issue, Poland and the Baltic countries remained dependent on Russian gas supplies, with Poland last year importing 60% of the gas consumed by industry and households from Russian gas company Gazprom.  According to Poland’s Prime Minister Tusk, Central and Eastern Europe’s dependence on Russian gas effectively gave Putin too much leverage.  However after years of stating that it should liberate itself from independence of Russia’s gas supplies, and not doing much about it, Poland is now diversifying its gas sources.

By the end of this year, Poland is set to complete construction of a liquefied natural gas terminal to import gas from Qatar.  It has also increased the capacity of interconnector pipelines with German and the Czech Republic in order to boost supplies from those markets.  Poland also hopes to start producing its own shale gas in the future.

The United States and Other Powers Vote to Kick Russia out of G8

On Tuesday, United States President Barack Obama arrived in Brussels for scheduled talks with leaders of the European Union and NATO, which will focus on Ukraine and other transatlantic issues.

Sources have indicated that the talks will focus on free trade deals and on lingering concerns caused by allegations of American spying on EU allies, however discussions on the crisis in Ukraine are likely to dominate the talks.  On Tuesday, Mr Obama stated that Russia was acting “not out of strength, but out of weakness” in Ukraine, warning of the possibility of further sanctions against Russia if it encroached further into Ukraine.  The US President, who is currently on an official tour in Europe, elaborated Wednesday, stating “energy is obliviously a central focus of our efforts,” and acknowledged that this “will have some impact on the global economy.”  He also praised the EU for the steps it had already taken, along with the US, to penalise Russia.  These have included visa bans and asset freezes against a number of Russian officials.

During a press conference held shortly after completing talks with EU leaders Jose Manuel Barroso and Herman Van Rompuy, the three men spoke of the special relationship between the transatlantic partners, with Mr Obama stating “the world is safer and more just when Europe and American stand as one.”  Mr Van Rompuy, the European Council president, called it a “crucial” relationship.  Their talks at the headquarters of the 28-nation EU bloc also covered plans to finalise a transatlantic trade partnership, as well as efforts to tackle Iran’s nuclear programme and Syria’s chemical weapons.

Security has been heightened in the Belgian capital, with police cordoning off areas near the EU headquarters and Mr Obama’s hotel.  Some extra 800 police officers have been deployed on Brussels streets for the duration of Mr Obama’s visit, which will last less than 24 hours.  In total, Belgium has spent 10m euros (£8.35m) on increased security.

Russia Suspended from G8

As United States President Barack Obama continues his official visit in Europe, the President and other world leaders have decided to end Russia’s role in the group of leading industrialized nations.  The move to suspend Russia’s membership in the G8 is just the latest direct response from major countries allied against Russia’s annexation of Crimea.  An aide to British Prime Minister David Cameron also confirmed that a group summit, initially planned for June in Sochi, Russia, where the Winter Olympics were held, is now off.

A statement released by the White House Monday stated “international law prohibits the acquisition of part or all of another state’s territory through coercion or force,” adding “to do so violates the principles upon which the international system is built.  We condemn the illegal referendum held in Crimea in violation of Ukraine’s constitution.”  In response to Russia’s suspension from the G8, Russian Foreign Minster Sergey Lavrov indicated Monday that the move would be no big deal.  Speaking during a news conference, the foreign minister stated “G8 is an information organization that does not give out any membership cards and, by its definition, cannot remove anyone….All the economic and financial questions are decided in G20, and G8 has the purpose of existence as the forum of dialogue between the leading Western countries and Russia.”  Lavrov added that Russia was “not attached to this format and we don’t see a great misfortune if it will not gather.  Maybe, for a year or two, it will be an experiment for us to see how we live without it.”  In a nod to political and economic reforms, the United States, Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Japan and Italy added Russia to the group in 1998, effectively transforming it from the G7 to the G8.

Speaking shortly after attending a nuclear security summit with other world leaders in the Netherlands, President Obama stated that the United States and its allies in Europe are “united in imposing a cost on Russia for its actions so far.”

International Concern Over Russian Troop Movement in Eastern Ukraine

The White House has warned that Russian forces gathering on the border with eastern Ukraine may be poised to invade as the government in Kiev indicated that the prospect of war with Moscow was continuing to grow after the annexation of Crimea.

On Monday, a close aide to US President Barack Obama indicated that the White House is “very concerned by the potential for escalation” after Russia massed its troops on the border with Ukraine.  Speaking to journalists as leaders gathered in The Hague to discuss a response to the crisis, Deputy National Security Advisor Ben Rhodes stated that the officials in the US “…are watching very closely, we believe that Russia stands an enormous amount to lose” from any escalation.  The official statement from the White House comes as a US military officer confirmed Monday that Russian military presence continued to increase along Ukraine’s eastern border.  The officer, who spoke on condition of anonymity, indicated “they’re still growing in numbers.  They’re still in a hot state of readiness,,” however the officer did note that there was no sign that Russian forces were about to launch an invasion of eastern Ukraine,” adding “we haven’t seen anything to suggest anything is imminent….But if they chose to move, it would not take long.”

Even before Putin formally annexed Ukraine’s southern Crimea region last week, following a referendum, which has been condemned as illegal by Western government, thousands of Russian troops had held a military exercise near the border regions.  With the annexation of Crimea, NATO officials are now concerned that Putin could have desires to take over Transnistria, a restive Russian-speaking region in western Moldova, also known as Trans-Dniester, where separatist leaders have demanded to be allowed to join Russia following the annexation of Crimea.  Moldova’s President Nicolae Timofti warned Putin last week against considering the annexation of Transnistria.

Moscow however has denied any such plans despite President Vladimir Putin’s open ambition to resurrect vestiges of the Soviet empire and stamp his authority over eastern European nations that sought protection from the west following the 1989 fall of the Berlin Wall.  The Kremlin has also made it clear that it intends to “protect” compatriots in the Russifies south-eastern swaths of Ukraine that it says have been victimised by violent nationalists since last month’s rice to power of a pro-European team.

According to officials in the Ukraine, the Russians had roughly 30,000 troops near the border, including air and ground forces, air defence weapons, fighter jets, motorised vehicles, airborne units and cargo planes in order to move those troops.”  An official also indicated that Russian forces were deployed along the main roads leading to the border but had not moved any closer to Ukraine in recent days.  A second defence official noted that the Russians had more than enough troops in place in order to launch an operation in eastern Ukraine if it decided to.  Officials in the United States have indicated that they are closely monitoring the situation.

Ukraine Orders Troops out of Crimea 

On Monday, Ukraine ordered its outnumbered troops to withdraw from Crimea after the seizure of another military base.

Ukraine’s acting president Oleksandr Turchynov sombrely told lawmakers that both servicemen and their families would now be relocated to the mainland.  In a national televised statement, the president indicated, “the national security and defence council has reached a decision, under instructions from the defence ministry, to conduct a redeployment of military units stationed in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea.”  He added, “the cabinet of ministers had instructions to resettle the families of soldiers as well as everyone else who today is forced to leave their homes under the pressure and aggression of the Russian army’s occupying forces.”

Crimea’s pro-Kremlin deputy premier Rustam Temirgaliyev indicated Monday “all Ukrainian soldiers had either switched to the Russian side or are leaving the territory of the Crimea.”

The assault by Russian troops and pro-Kremlin militias continued Monday with the fall of a Ukrainian naval base in the east Crimean port of Feodosia.  Russia’s latest surprise assault came during the pre-dawn hours on Monday and involved both armoured personnel carriers and stun grenades.  The Ukrainian defence ministry announced that Russian paratroopers were lowered onto the Feodosia naval base from four helicopters in a commando-style operation in which guns were fired in the air and stun grenades strewn across the facility.  Less than two hours later, several military trucks were seen leaving the base with some Ukrainian marines whose hands had been tied.   The base in Feodosia housed Ukraine’s only marine battalion.  The country’s marine union indicated that it was home to an elite unit that was part of the navy.

Meanwhile on Monday, the Kremlin stamped its claim on Crimea with a symbolic visit by Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, the first top Moscow official visit to Crimea since its March 16 independence referendum.  In comments broadcast on Russian state television, Shoigu stated, “in the last days, a group of officers has been checking and making sure there is no interim stage or anarchy, making sure that the military hardware does not fall into not the best hands.

MENA Update

Algeria

22 March- In a rare event, nearly 5,000 supporters of Algerian opposition parties have rallied to call for a boycott of next month’s election, and to protest President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s run for another term after 15 years in power. Bouteflika, 77, suffered a stroke last year; opponents believe that his condition has left him unfit to govern for another term. Finally, protestors called for reforms to the Algerian political system, which they view as corrupt.

Six additional candidates have begun campaigning in the run-up to the presidential elections, however, Bouteflika has the support of the powerful ruling National Liberation Front (FLN), army factions and business elites. It is believed that despite his absence from the public in the past year, Bouteflika is almost assured victory.

Further assuring victory are the divisions among the nation. Rival Islamist and secular party supporters chanted slogans opposing one another during the rally, a reminder of the splits between the RCD and the MSP Islamist party, who have been adversaries for years.

Since 2001, public protests have been banned in Algeria. The nation was under a state of emergency for nearly 20 years before it was lifted last month. However, the government still bans any event that is “likely to disturb public order and tranquility”. During the Arab Spring of 2011, Algeria remained relatively stable as nations around them experienced tumultuous uprisings, however there is now a growing anger at Bouteflika’s decision to seek a fourth term.  Human Rights Watch has warned that Algerian authorities were deploying large numbers of police and arresting protesters ahead of the elections.

Bahrain

24 March- In the capital, Manama, Bahraini security forces reportedly fired tear gas at funeral goers in a Shia mosque. The attack follows protests that took place near the capital on Friday. During the protest, thousands of mostly Shia Bahrainis, led by Al-Wefaq party, shut down the Budaiya Highway, a main thoroughfare between the surrounding Shia villages and the capital. Protesters clashed with police, who responded with tear gas and petrol bombs.

A statement released by the Bahraini government announced that it will launch an investigation “into what has been circulating in some newspapers and mass media about a Ministry of Interior’s vehicle that fired a tear gas bomb near a religious building.” The statement added that legal measures will be taken against the violators should they are held accountable.

The event marks the latest attempt by the Bahraini regime to crack down on dissent stemming from the 2011 uprising against King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifah. The protesters are still calling for an end to sectarian discrimination toward the majority Shia population at the hands of the minority Sunni ruling party. The Shia majority maintains they have been marginalized in employment and housing, and excluded from the Sunni dominated political system.

Opposition leaders have called for lawmaking to be the responsibility of Parliament rather than the monarchy. However a political solution has yet to be reached.

Egypt

24 March- After two court sessions, Egyptian courts have sentenced 529 supporters of ousted Islamist President Mohammed Morsi to death. They defendants were accused of killing a senior police officer and attempting to murder two others, as well as attacking public property, torching the Matay police station, seizing police weapons and disrupting public order. The men are reportedly members of the Muslim Brotherhood. Only 147 defendants were present for the sentencing. The remainder was tried in absentia. Sixteen defendants were acquitted. The final decision has been turned over to the grand Mufti for approval.

It is common for those tried in absentia to receive the harshest sentences, however this is the largest number of people convicted in one trial in Modern Egypt’s history. It is likely that the verdicts, or a large portion of them, will be overturned by appeal. The case was rife with irregularities. Most significantly, defense attorneys for the defendants were not allowed to argue for their clients. The trial judge had refused to allow them into the court room.

Members of the Muslim Brotherhood and other lawyers have called the action a display of the extent of politicization of the court system. Others have cited institutionalized contempt for the Muslim Brotherhood, who since November 2013, have been considered a terrorist group in Egypt.

Iran

25 March- Iran’s Interior Ministry has confirmed that one of five border guards abducted by terrorists and transferred to Pakistan last month has been killed. On February 6, five Iranian border guards were abducted by the Jaish-ul-Adl terrorist group in the Jakigour region of the Iranian province, which rests on the border with Pakistan. The men were later transferred to the Pakistani territory.

On Sunday, Jaish-ul-Adl terrorists tweeted that they had killed one of the abductees, Jamshid Danaeifar. Iran has declared that it holds the Pakistani government responsible for the lives of the Iranian hostages.

This is the latest action conducted by Jaish-ul-Adl. On October 25, 2013, the group killed 14 Iranian border guards and wounded six others on the border region in Sistan and Baluchestan Province.

In February 2013, Iran and Pakistan signed a bilateral security agreement requiring both countries to cooperate in combating organized crime, fighting terrorism and countering the activities that pose a threat to the national security of either country. Iran has repeatedly called on Pakistan to comply with the terms of the agreement.

Iraq

25 March- A series of attacks around the nation have left at least 46 people dead and 32 wounded on Monday and Tuesday. Iraq is experiencing resurgence in sectarian violence and terrorist attacks. According to UN figures, in 2013, 8,868 people have been killed, among them 7,818 civilians.

In Al Hawiya, 155 miles north of Baghdad, three members of the pro-government militia known as the Salvation Council were killed and two others were wounded when armed gunmen attacked one of the group’s checkpoints. North of Tikrit in Al Asryia, three police officers and a civilian were killed in an attack carried out by armed men on a police station. In Al Huyay Zone, also north of Tikrit, an Iraqi government official was murdered by armed men as he was driving a state-owned vehicle, and in a separate attack, a driver with the Civil Defense department in the city of Al Sharkat was killed.

Attacks in Mosul appeared to be the heaviest on Monday. An Iraqi army soldier was killed with silenced weapons on a public street. A car bomb killed one civilian and injured five others, and one police officer died and another was wounded in an attack on their patrol car near the university. Also, in Mosul, the head of planning for the Mosul police, Col. Faisal Ahmed, and another person were wounded when a roadside bomb exploded as they were driving by.

There does not appear to be respite to the ongoing violence in Iraq.

Kuwait

25 March- The 2014 Arab League summit will begin today in Bayan Palace in Kuwait, south of Kuwait City. Thirteen heads of Arab states will attend the summit, including Kuwait Amir, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, Egyptian President Adly Mansour, and Qatar’s Amir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al- Thani. Other states have sent high-ranking delegations to the summit. The theme of summit is “Unity for a better Future.”

During the opening ceremony, Kuwaiti Amir Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah urged for closer ties between Arab states: “This summit was held in difficult circumstances regionally and internationally. So it’s very important to stand united and coordinate our policy for the sake of regional prosperity and security,” he said.

At the top of the agenda are the Syrian crisis and Palestinian cause. Attendees of the summit hope to hammer out a solution to end Syria’s civil war. Significantly, Syria’s membership to the Arab League has been suspended since 2011; however Ahmad Al-Jarba, leader of the opposition group Syria National Council, was invited to address the summit. With regard to the Palestinian cause, the Amir said, “it’s been the major challenge in Arab region, we’ll continue to support the Palestinians.”

The summit will also address additional issues, including terrorism, economic cooperation, the Lebanese security situation, and Egypt’s political progress. The summit will conclude on Wednesday with the release of the Kuwait Declaration, relating to political, economic, social, and development issues in the Arab world.

Lebanon

23 March- Lebanese troops were deployed after a number of casualties were reported in a predominantly Sunni Muslim area in Beirut, following clashes among supporters and opponents of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

The clashes come after over a week of factional violence in the northern Lebanon city of Tripoli. The fighting raged between members of the predominantly Sunni district of Bab al-Tabbaneh, which are anti Assad, and the Jabal Muhsin, which is populated mainly by Alawites, the heterodox sect of President Assad. The battle left 25 dead. Cars and buildings in Beirut were left riddled with bullet holes. The war in Syria has spread into parts of Lebanon and exacerbated tensions between the two districts in the northern port city.

Libya

24 March- Al-Sadik al-Sour, head investigator for Libya’s prosecutor general, has announced that the crew of the renegade oil tanker, the Morning Glory, has been released and will be deported

Al- Sour did not give the nationality of the 21 crew members, but did state that they were referred border police Monday to send them out of the country. Three eastern Libya militia members who were aboard the vessel will be detained for 14 days to be interrogated by prosecutors.

Witnesses in the investigation have revealed that that the crew members were working at gunpoint. The ship remains in Tripoli and is due to be unloaded in the port of Zawiya refinery, 40 kilometers (25 miles) west of Tripoli. It was originally North Korean-flagged, but North Korean officials say they have cancelled its registration.

The Morning Glory was captured by U.S. Navy SEALs last week in the eastern Mediterranean and handed over to the Libyan navy, which escorted the tanker to Tripoli. The operation brought an end to an attempt by a militia from eastern Libya to sell the crude in defiance of the central government in Tripoli.

Morocco

25 March- Moroccan Authorities have deported a group of Syrian citizens who had tried to reach the Moroccan territory via Algeria. The 21-person group, appearing to be a large family consisting of men, women, and children, had fled from Algeria to the Moroccan city of Saidia on the Moroccan-Algerian border. They were apprehended and taken to the Saaidia police station, where they remained for 8 days before being transported to Mohammed V Airport in Casablanca.

The group had requested asylum in Morocco and objected to being deported. Moroccan authorities denied their request. The deportation took place today on Monday despite appeals by human rights associations. The Syrians were promised that they would be deported to Lebanon, but they expressed concern that they would be taken to Turkey instead. The family patriarch, Akil Kassim said in an interview that he refused to take the plane to Turkey, defending his right to stay in Morocco.

Qatar

25 March- Many Arab nations will likely use an Arab summit this week to try to pressure Qatar to stop supporting the Muslim Brotherhood and other opposition movements throughout the region. Egypt and Saudi Arabia, who have labeled the Muslim Brotherhood a terrorist organization, will take the lead in attempting to isolate Qatar by calling for a collective Arab approach to terror. Both nations, as well as Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates have withdrawn their ambassadors from Qatar.

The Arab leaders also want Qatar to stop supporting Shiite rebels in Yemen, and to ensure that Qatari arms shipments to Syrian rebels do not wind up in the hands of terrorists. Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister, Prince Saud al-Faisal, said, “There will be a breakthrough only if that nation changed [sic] the policies that caused the crisis in the first place.”

Qatari leaders insist they will push ahead with their own policies. Qatari Foreign Minister Khalid bin Mohammed al-Attiyah has said his country will “follow a path of its own” and that the independence of its “foreign policy is simply non-negotiable.” Recently, Qatar has attempted to spearhead efforts to resolve the Syrian crisis and mediated in some of Sudan’s internal conflicts.

The need for a collective Arab approach to terror will figure prominently in an address at the summit’s opening session Tuesday by Egyptian Interim President Adly Mansour, where he restate a six-point plan of action against terror announced this month by Egyptian Foreign Minister Nabil Fahmy. The points, designed to embarrass Qatar, include a ban on providing a safe haven for terrorists or aiding them in any way, assisting investigations into terrorist attacks, and extraditing wanted militants.

Syria

25 March- Clashes between Syrian rebels and forces loyal to President Assad have spread to a coastal area near the Turkish border. Opposition fighters are engaged in a campaign to gain access to the sea through the seaside tourist village of Samra, on the Syria-Turkey border. The access would give rebels an outlet to the Mediterranean for the first time since the Syrian conflict began, and would follow the rebel capture of the area’s predominantly Armenian Christian town and border crossing of Kassab on Sunday.

The seizure of the border crossing severed one of the Assad government’s last links to the Turkish border. The move came after Syrian troops captured several towns near the border with Lebanon in an effort to sever rebel supply lines across the porous Lebanese frontier. Since Monday, more than 80 wounded Syrians had been brought across the border into Turkey for treatment and nine of them died.

On Friday, rebels launched their offensive in the Alawite stronghold of the Latakia province. The rebels in the region are mainly from hard-line Sunni groups, including the al-Qaida-linked Nusra Front, who view the Alawites as heretics. However in an effort to show no harm to local Christians, an activist posted a video from inside a church in Kassab to show that it was left untouched.

Syria’s conflict has killed more than 140,000 people, displaced at least a quarter of its pre-war population of 23 million and triggered a humanitarian crisis across the region.

Yemen

24 March- A group of suspected al-Qaeda militants attacked a security checkpoint in southeastern Yemen, killing 22 troops and left only one survivor, who pretended he was dead.

The surprise attack occurred near the town of al-Rayda, in Yemen’s Hadramawt province. The group first sent in a suicide car bomb, then the attackers drove into the checkpoint in vehicles carrying what appeared to be stolen military license plates. The militants gunned down members of the Central Security Forces while asleep in their quarters; anonymous sources said the attackers also set fire to an armored vehicle and another car near the checkpoint. The lone survivor pretended he was dead as he was drenched in blood. The gunmen used heavy machine guns and fled the scene of the attack.

Yemen’s al-Qaida branch, also known as Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), is considered to be the terror group’s most dangerous offshoot. The group increased its presence in southern Yemen after the country’s 2011 uprising.

Yemen’s newly-appointed Interior Minister, Major General Abdou Hussein el-Terb, suspended three senior security officers pending investigation in the attack, including Brigadier General Fahmi Mahrous, who was in charge of security in Hadramawt; Colonel Abdel-Wahab al-Waili commander of the CSF, and Major Youssef Baras, commander of the attacked checkpoint.

Across Yemen, and especially in the volatile Hadramawt, the government has struggled to eradicate the presence of al-Qaeda from territory they captured during the political turmoil.

Gunmen Kidnap Tunisian Diplomat in Libya

Unidentified gunmen have kidnapped a Tunisian diplomat in Tripoli.  The abduction was confirmed Saturday by Tunisia’s foreign minister.

According to embassy sources, the incident occurred late Friday when the kidnappers forces Mohamed bin Sheikh into their vehicle in the Ain Zara suburb of eastern Tripoli.  The diplomat is a secretary to the Tunisian ambassador in Libya.

Speaking Saturday, Tunisian Foreign Minister Mongi Hamdi confirmed that “a Tunisian diplomat was kidnapped in Tripoli…” adding “the Tunisian ambassador told me that his car was found empty.”  Tunisia’s ministry is currently in contact with Libyan authorities to obtain more information and to set up efforts to secure Mr Sheikh’s release.  They have also urged Libyan authorities to protect members of its diplomatic mission.

Although the motive behind the abduction remains unclear, with no group claiming responsibility or demanding a ransom, some sources have suggested that the move may be linked to Tunisia’s war against its own Ansar al-Sharia, which has connections to Ansar in Libya.

This latest abduction is just one of a string of diplomatic abductions that have occurred in the Libyan capital this year alone.  It further demonstrates the weak Libyan government’s struggle to curb militias while it attempts to build a democracy after four decades of dictatorship under Col. Muammar Gaddafi.

In January, five Egyptian diplomats were briefly kidnapped in Tripoli in what security officials stated at the time was in retaliation for Egypt’s arrest of a Libyan militia chief.  They were later freed, with Egypt also releasing the militia commander.  During the same month, a South Korean trade official was kidnapped as he left his office in Tripoli.  He was freed days later by security forces.  Libyan officials later stated that his kidnapping was not politically motivated.

Although there has been a rise in the number of abductions of foreign diplomats in Libya, the threat of kidnapping has not been solely focused on officials.  In recent months, foreigners have also been targeted, however the motives remain unclear.  In December 2013, an American teacher was shot dead in Benghazi while in January, a British man and a New Zealand woman were shot execution-style on a beach in western Libya.

Three years after Libya’s revolt to topple Muammar Gaddafi, the North African country continues to struggle to impose security as brigades of former rebels, Islamist militants and ex-fighters refuse to disarm.  While Libyans view these groups as both a blessing and a curse, as on the one hand in the absence of an effective army they provide security across much of the country and protect the borders, on the other hand, they have taken the law into their own hands, with some groups being accused of human rights abuses and unlawful detention.  One of the most high-profile incidents involving these militias was the October 2013 kidnapping of Prime Minister Ali Zeidan by a group which was originally set up to provide security in the capital city.  In turn, these militia groups have also been involved in a number of clashes.  In November 2013, clashes broke out in the capital between militias from the town of Misrata and local protesters.  The incident left more than fifty people dead and hundreds wounded.  It also sparked a backlash against the armed groups in Tripoli, resulting in several of the militias leaving the capital, including Misrata and Zintan who had been there ever since the war.

Libyan Airport Partially Reopened after Rockets Hit Runway

Tripoli International Airport suspended operations today after two rockets exploded on the main runway, causing minor damage.  No casualties have been reported. The blasts occurred at 5 am local time, before the airport had begun their inbound or outbound traffic services.

The cause of the rocket fire was unknown and no group has taken responsibility, however since the civil war that resulted in the death of Muammar Gadhafi in 2011, Libya’s security has considerably deteriorated. Several of the armed militias formed during the civil war have remained in place. Some militias have become members of Libya’s security forces; others have remained to protect their own aims or territories, despite the government’s attempts to disband them. Often, these militia groups clash with one another, resulting in violence and civil disruption.

Al Zintan militia, a group of nearly 4,000 ex-rebels, have been providing security for the international airport since October 2011. Al-Zintan are most well-known for their current detention of Gaddafi’s son, Saif al-Islam. The militia have been known to have rivalries with militias in Eastern Libya.

Eastern Libya itself has become a haven for armed militia groups who are currently at odds with the Tripoli government. In June 2013, the Cyrenaica Transitional Council (CTC) issued a declaration of autonomy for the eastern Libyan region. Earlier in March, the group attempted to provide Libyan oil to a North Korean vessel without the permission of the Tripoli government. The vessel was captured by the US Navy SEALs on 17 March.

On Thursday, 20 March, Libya’s government announced that it would mobilise security forces to address the terrorist groups that have been responsible for a large number of attacks, kidnapping, and violence, particularly against security services and foreigners.

The Tripoli International Airport partially opened earlier today, using the old north-south runway while the main runway remained closed for maintenance, now complete. However, many flights, including those of Air Malta, Tunis Air, Alitalia and Lufthansa, had already been cancelled due to confusion as to when the airport would reopen. Further, other flights have been cancelled because fearful passengers have not turned up, and a lack of staff after they were sent home in the morning.

It is expected that the airport will restart normal services tomorrow (22 March).