MS Risk Blog

Al Qaeda weapons ship docks in Aden

11 April- A ship manned by al Qaeda militants and loaded with weapons arrived at Yemen’s port in Aden. As the militants began to unload the weapons, they clashed with from Yemen’s anti –smuggling unit, and re-boarded the ship. As the militants sailed away from the dock, they were followed by Yemeni coast guard and navy, however security forces lost the trail of the ship. It is reported that two militants were killed by security forces; however it is unclear whether they were killed in clashes at the port or on sea.The Yemeni Interior minister had issued a warning on 9 April that an al Qaeda ship had departed from Djbouti, and was thought to be loaded with weapons and heading to Aden, approximately 154 nautical miles away. The ship was thought to be manned by militants from Yemen’s eastern Hadramout province. During the 2011 Arab Spring, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) used the chaos to their advantage and seized control of vast areas in Yemen’s south, including Hadramout. Yemeni military and counter-terrorism efforts have allowed the nation to successfully recapture the land; however the region remains a stronghold for AQAP militants.

Yemen has experienced a large amount of weapons smuggling in recent years. Last year, a senior Yemeni official confirmed that weapons smugglers are taking advantage of the many small, unpopulated islands in the Red Sea to engage in criminal activities. The anonymous official said, “It is easy for large ships to unload their cargo there, with this later being smuggled into Yemen on smaller fishing boats.”

Arms are smuggled into Yemen for two main reasons: first, they are used in terror tactics and political by militants, and second, they are for financial profit, often being sold into nearby countries.

Yemen has a long coastline, approximately 2,200 km (1,367 miles), however Yemen does not have strong maritime security. The nation’s naval force consists of (as of 2011) only 1700 troop and 20 patrol ships. They lack sufficient personnel and equipment to effectively monitor their maritime coast. Officials have complained that large arms shipments are entering through the port, not only for use by AQAP, but also by Yemen’s Houthi (“Youth”) movement, an insurgent group that has been present in Yemen since 2004.

Twin Blasts Rock Nigerian Capital

Twin blasts at a packed bus station in Nigeria’s capital on Monday have killed more than seventy people.

Officials reported Monday that more than seventy people have been killed in two blasts that were carried out in crowded bus station on the outskirts of Nigeria’s capital, Abuja.  Abbas Idris, head of the Abuja Emergency Relief Agency, has stated that so far officials have confirmed 71 people dead and 124 injured, however these numbers are likely to rise in the coming days.   The cause of the explosions, which occurred at the Nyanya Bus Park roughly 5 kilometres (three miles) south of Abuja, was not immediately clear however security officials at the scene are currently working to determine the cause of the explosions.  For now, they are suspecting that the explosion occurred inside a vehicle.  While no group has claimed responsibility for the attacks, officials in Abuja believe Boko Haram militants are likely behind it.

The incident occurred as commuters were about to board buses and taxis to go to work in central Abuja.  The blast ripped a hole four feet deep (1.2 metres) in the ground of Nyanya Motor Park and destroyed more than thirty vehicles, causing secondary explosions as their fuel tanks ignited and burned.

The capital city been previously attacked by Boko Haram insurgents.  In 2011, it carried out a suicide bombing at a United Nations building in Abuja, killing at least 26 six peoples.  The incident has been one of the group’s most prominent attacks.  More recently however, the group’s violence has been concentrated in the remote north eastern region of the country.  If Monday’s attack is confirmed by Boko Haram, the attack on the outskirts of Abuja would cast further doubt on the military’s claims that the insurgents have been weakened and lack the capacity to strike prominent targets.

This year, Boko Haram militants have killed more than 1,500 civilians in three states in north eastern Nigeria.  Although the Nigerian government launched a military operation in May last year, aimed at ending the near four year insurgency, since then, the militants have been pushed out of the major city centres in the states of Borno, Yobe and Adamawa and have relocated into the villages and surrounding areas where they have continued to carry out violent attacks.  They have also been suspected of crossing the porous borders between Nigeria and Cameroon, where they have taken shelter from the on going military operations and where they have carried out attacks.

Bringing Stability to Guinea-Bissau

Voters in the West African nation are set to go to the polls on 13 April in what is being seen as a milestone in a country that over the past three decades has suffered five coups.

The upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections are the first to be held since the 2012 coup that overthrew interim President Raimundo Pereira.  Incumbent President Manuel Serifo Nhamadjo, who had led the country’s transitional government since 2012, will not be standing at this Sunday’s elections, pledging to hand over power when a new head of state has been inaugurated.

Will the Elections be Credible?

One of the main reasons behind why Guinea-Bissau has suffered a number of coups is the overarching influence that the military has in political.  International pressure and the conduct of the military will therefore be key.  The United Nations has already indicated that the country’s return to stability will depend in part on credible elections.  The UN has vowed to impose “targeted sanctions” against those who undermine the country’s efforts to restore constitutional order.  It has also specifically warned military leaders against “meddling in the electoral process, or ignoring the outcome.”  In response, the military has promised “zero” tolerance for fraud.

Key Issues

Since 1980, the five coups have taken place resulted in chronic instability and poverty for the country’s 1.6 million people.  The next president will therefore need to remove the army from politics in order to prevent more coups and to enhance political stability.  The new president will also need to bolster the fight against drug trafficking, as the country is seen as a transit point in the smuggling of South American cocaine into Europe.  According to the United Kingdom’s All-Parliamentary Group for Guinea-Bissau, the country “is widely acknowledged to be one of the world’s international drug trafficking hubs” and is “one of the poorest nations on earth.”

The Main Parties

Sunday’s elections will inevitably be a race between the PAIGC (African Party for the Independence of Guinea-Bissau and Cape Verde) and the PRS (Party for Social Renewal).

The PAIGC is the former liberation movement that fought a guerilla war against Portuguese colonial rule for over a decade and took power on independence in 1974.

The PRS has mostly been in opposition.  Kumba Yala, the only president it has produced so far, was overthrown in a coup in 2003 and died earlier this month, just days before the elections.  The party will be hoping for a strong turnout amongst the Balanta ethnic group, which is its main support base.

The Main Presidential Candidates

Representing the PAIGC is Jose Mario Vaz, a former finance minister credited with implementing tough economic reforms.  His efforts led to the Paris Club of lenders cancelling a US $1 billion debt and France cancelling a US $8 million euro debt.

Abel Incada, who is representing the PRS, is a businessman who previously served as first deputy chairman of the Chamber of Commerce.

Another candidate is Nazare de Pina Vieira, the widow of former President Joao Bernardo Vieira, who is standing an as independent.  She has been living in Paris since her husband’s assassination in March 2009.

Who will Monitor the Elections?

Countries from the regional body, ECOWAS, agreed in February 2014 to deploy 750 troops in order to ensure security during the polls.  There will also be international observers from the United Kingdom, European Union, the African Union, ECOWAS, Nigeria and East Timor.

In February, a presidential decree indicated that more than 776,000 people had registered to vote, representing 95% of eligible voters.

What is the electoral System?

In Guinea-Bissau, the president is elected by an absolute majority, with a second round of voting occurring if it is required.  The presidential term is five years.

The 102 members of parliament are elected from 27 multi-member constituencies to serve four-year terms.

Ebola Outbreak in West Africa Passes 100 Mark

As Ebola deaths in Guinea pass the 100 mark, World Health Organization (WHO) officials have indicated that the latest outbreak of the deadly virus is the “most challenging.”

On Tuesday, the United Nations World Health Organization stated that the number of people believed to have been killed by the Ebola virus in Guinea has passed 100, adding that it was “one of the most challenging Ebola outbreaks we have ever dealt with,” and noting that it could take another four months to contain the deadly virus.

Officials at the WHO have stated that there are currently 157 cases in Guinea, where 101 people have died. Twenty cases have been reported in Guinea’s capital city, Conakry. Sixty-seven of these cases have been confirmed as Ebola. Liberia has also recorded 21 cases and 10 deaths.

While southern Guinea is the epicentre of the outbreak, with the first case reported last month, porous borders amongst many West African states coupled with people frequently travelling between countries, have led to the virus spreading to Liberia. Officials however did receive some good news earlier this week when tests showed that suspected cases in Ghana and Sierra Leone were not Ebola. Two of nine suspected cases in Mali were also cleared. However Dr Keiji Fukuda of the WHO has warned that it is still too early to say whether the rate of transmission is slowing but that the outbreak is far from over. The geographical spread of the outbreak is continuing to make it particularly challenging to contain as past outbreaks involved much smaller areas.

Meanwhile on Saturday, officials in Guinea appealed for calm in the Ebola-hit southern region of the country after a group of international aid workers battling to contain an outbreak of the deadly virus were attacked by a mob. Sources have indicated that Doctors Without Borders (MSF) was forced to suspend its operations in Macenta, in south-eastern Guinea, on Friday after crowds attacked one of its centres. Officials in Conakry later indicated that the crowd had gathered as rumours circulated in the town that the virus was “imported into Guinea or that Ebola fever does not exist in our country.”

A statement issued by Guinea’s government on Saturday vowed that lawbreakers would be brought to justice and said it was “calling for calm and serenity to enable our partners to support us to eradicate this epidemic.” The statement further noted that “the government has protests against such information and reiterates that only the recognition of the existence of the disease will help fight against it.” In regards to the MSF’s work in Guinea, the statement indicated that “the contribution of MSF and all international organisations that are supporting Guinea in the fight against the pandemic is invaluable and has helped so far to contain the disease,” adding that “without these partners, the disease would not be under control today.” MSF has 52 international experts who are working alongside Guinean staff in Conakry and the provincial towns of Gueckedou and Macenta, which are located in the southern epicentre of the outbreak. The MSF’s spokesman Sam Taylor stated Saturday “”MSF’s head of mission is in Gueckedou to meet with the regional governor, senior health officials and local community leaders. We hope to restart our work as soon as possible.” Sources have indicated that MSF is planning to restart its Macenta operation as soon as possible. Treatment is continuing in Gueckedou, another town that has been badly hit by the outbreak.

Egypt making strides against Al Qaeda-based Terrorism

On 7 April, Mohammed al-Zawahiri, brother of Al Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri, was referred to Egyptian criminal court on terrorism related charges. He and 67 others will be tried; only 50 of the defendants are in custody. The remaining defendants are currently on the run, and will be tried in absentia. The official court date has not yet been set.

The suspects are charged with creating an “Al-Qaeda-linked terrorist group”. They are also charged with planning assaults on government and security installations, conducting attacks on Egyptian security personnel, and targeting Egypt’s Coptic Christian minority with intentions to “spread chaos and undermine security.” The statement does not indicate specific events or attacks, but Egyptian investigations have disclosed that members of Zawahiri’s group were told to leave Egypt to fight the Assad regime in Syria. On 30 June 2013, the day Morsi was evicted from office, the group’s members were told to return to counter Egypt’s new authorities.

Zawahiri, an Egyptian national, is specifically charged with forming the AQ inspired group, arming its members, and training them in developing explosives and planting bombs. Authorities have stated they have evidence that the group was trained in hidden locations in the Sharqiya province, as well as Cairo’s districts of Matareya and 6 October.

Sharqiya has been inflicted by frequent attacks targeting security forces. On 29 December, 2013, four soldiers were injured in an explosion near Sharqiya Governorate’s Military Intelligence Headquarters in Anshas. A car packed with explosives detonated near the building, partially destroying the structure’s rear façade. Sharqiya police officers have also been killed and injured in targeted shootings since August 2013. Most recently, perpetrators on motorcycles showered police with bullets as they drove past, killing one and injuring three. In Matareya and 6 October, supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood have clashed regularly with police.

Since the 30 June ouster of Morsi, and particularly since 14 August crackdown on Morsi supporters protesting in Rabaa and al-Nahda Squares in Cairo, Egypt has suffered a string of bombings and shootings targeting security forces, killing nearly 500 people. While the bulk of the attacks have occurred in the Sinai Peninsula, attacks have steadily moved westward into Nile Valley Egypt. A majority of the attacks have been claimed by a Sinai-based, al Qaeda inspired group called Ansar Beit al Maqdis. Despite the group’s vocal claim of responsibility for several attacks, in September 2013 the Muslim Brotherhood was designated as a terrorist organisation in Egypt, accused of having financial and operational links with Al Qaeda and other militant organisations.

Also on 7 April, Egyptian authorities apprehended Thirwat Salah Shehata, an Egyptian national and one of Ayman al Zawahiri’s top deputies. Shehata, a senior al Qaeda leader, took shelter in Iran for much of the post-9/11 period.

In early 2011 during the revolution to remove President Hosni Mubarak, Shehata released a statement from Iran calling on the people to “remain steadfast” and reject any economic concessions from Mubarak. “Indeed, the Pharaoh and his rotten party must depart.” Sometime after this statement, Shehata left Iran and went to Libya. US officials believe that he met with other senior al Qaeda leaders in Libya in 2013, including Abu Anas al Libi, who was detained by US forces in Tripoli. Al Libi was wanted for his role in the 1998 US Embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania and had also fled to Iran following 9/11.

Egyptian authorities believe that Shehata was in Libya to train militants in the Eastern region, which is currently a stronghold of militant groups threatening to break off from Libya and become an autonomous region.

Al Qaeda has an extensive presence in Libya. A January 2014 report from the US Senate Select Committee on Intelligence indicates that subgroups from the organisation, including Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), and the Muhammad Jamal Network have all “conducted training, built communication networks, and facilitated extremist travel across North Africa from their safe haven in parts of eastern Libya.” It is believed that senior AQ leaders, including Shehata have played a role in these efforts.

Shehata was initially a member of the Egyptian Islamic Jihad (EIJ), which was headed by Ayman al Zawahiri. Prior to the 9/11 attacks, the EIJ merged with Osama bin Laden’s al Qaeda operations. Within the EIJ, Shehata was the head of their security committee, and “maintained information about individual members and how to reach them, documenting physical, psychological, academic and religious information about each member and determining the type of work he could do.” According to former Director of Central Intelligence George Tenet, US officials received credible information that Shehata “was willing to strike US, Israeli, and Egyptian targets sometime in the future.” Tenet writes. Shehata was also “linked to terrorist operations in North Africa, and while in Afghanistan he had trained North Africans in the use of truck bombs.

Egypt’s capture of Shehata and the trial of Zawahiri come as Egypt prepares for presidential elections on 26 and 27 May. Field Marshall Abdul Fattah al Sisi, who removed Morsi from office, has experienced widespread popularity and is expected to win the election in a landslide victory. Since August 2013, Sisi has loudly vocalised the need to rid Egypt of the terrorist element. As Commander in Chief of the army and the Minister of Defence, his harsh stance against terrorism has been met with controversy. Although he stepped down from his positions to enter the presidential race as a civilian, the timing of this trial and arrest may serve to support his campaign in the lead up to the elections.