MS Risk Blog

Mokhtar Belmokhtar Alive in Libya

New information has revealed that Mokhtar Belmokhtar, the militant leader responsible for the bloody siege on Algeria’s In Amenas gas plant in January 2013, is alive and plotting new attacks from Libya. The report contradicts earlier intelligence suggesting Belmokhtar had been killed in fighting in Mali.

Belmokhtar, a native Algerian, was a key member of Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) until political infighting lead to a fallout with Abou Zeid. Belmokhtar split from the group and formed Khaled Abu al-Abbas Brigade (aka: Masked Brigade, aka: Signatories in Blood). Over the past year Belmokhtar was known to be working with Islamist group MUJAO to drive the Taureg separatist group, MNLA, out of Gao in Mali. His aim was to expand his land base and increase the numbers in his brigade. However a French-led intervention in Mali successfully put down the rebellion, and Chadian troops claimed to have killed both Belmokhtar and Abou Zeid in March of last year. The US however, still offered a five million dollar reward for information leading to his detention.

A security source in Niger and another close to the United Nations peacekeeping mission in Mali (MINUSMA) have confirmed that Belmokhtar has left Mali and taken refuge among armed militias in Libya. Belmokhtar is has evaded detection in Mali where French troops and US drones were searching for him. One source has stated, “From the Libyan territory, he intends to control the entire Sahel,” and many sources beleive that Belmokhtar is planning attacks on Westerners and their interests. Malian President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita believes that if Belmokhtar is in Libya, he posts an “obvious threat” to the entire region.

Malian Analyst El Hadj Konate warns, “Even if he has retreated to Libya, he is still masterminding deadly operations in northern Mali […] he has all the time he needs to regroup his forces because [Libya] is a lawless area.”
Officials in Niger are particularly concerned. On 23 May, 2013, a double attack was carried out on a military base and a French-operated uranium mine in northern Niger, killing several dozen people. Niger shares a long border with the relatively lawless Libya. Southern Libya, according to Niger’s interior minister, “has become an incubator for terrorist groups.”

The Nigerian government is increasing security and development in the north of the country, and focusing on issues including the addressing marginalisation of Tauregs in the area. However, officials fear that the youth of the nation could be influenced by terrorist recruiters.

Niger’s interior minister recently called on France and the United States to help “eradicate the terrorist threat” in Libya. However, the Chief of Staff for the French military has suggested that an international operation in the region could avert the creation “of a new centre of gravity of terrorism”.

Al Qaeda, AQAP, al-Shabaab, and Anjad Misr release videos

Four videos and one audio link related to al Qaeda have emerged. An audio release was published on 18 April on the radical Islamist site, Hanein, containing an hour-long question and answer interview AQ’s media group, al-Sahab, and reportedly including al Qaeda’s global leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri. In the discussion, Zawahiri states that al Qaeda is “holding strong” despite the ongoing war on terror that began nearly 13 years ago, even adding that US President Obama is aware that AQ is growing. Al Zawahiri states, “The upper hand is for the one who does not withdraw from his land. Who has withdrawn from Iraq, and who has not? Who has withdrawn from Afghanistan and who has not?”

In Egypt, a the militant group Anjad Misr (Soldiers of Egypt) claimed responsibility for attacks in Cairo on April 10, 15, and 18 on their Facebook and Twitter pages. The group also released video of eight previous attacks. Their stated goal is to target members of the current regime, which they consider “criminal” since the overthrow of Muslim Brotherhood-backed president Mohamed Morsi. The group’s statement asserts that Anjad Misr does not intend to harm civilians, and has aborted or altered some operations out of concern for civilians in the area. However, the statement said that the group is prepared to receive “information about the movements of the officers and personnel of the criminal services, and their addresses.”

This statement coincides with al Zawahiri’s audio message: he calls the Egyptian army “Americanized” and said they should be fought: “We bless every jihadi operation against the Zionists and the Americanized army that protects their borders and the criminal of the Interior, and fights the American interests that assault the Muslims.”

In Somalia, a video from al-Shabaab, the Somali-based al Qaeda affiliate, has also emerged. In the video, members of the militant group reflect on the siege of Westgate Mall in Nairobi, Kenya. The attack resulted in 67 deaths and is one of the bloodiest events associated with the group. However, in the video, the group states that more is likely to come: “It’s not that Westgate was enough. There are still hundreds of men who are wishing for such an operation.”

A final video shows what may be the largest al Qaeda gathering in years. Nasir al-Wuhayshi, the head of al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and the Number Two for global al Qaeda operations, appears in Yemen, greeting his followers. The video shows al-Wuhayshi delivering a speech containing specific threats to the United States: “We must eliminate the cross. … The bearer of the cross is America!”

Analysts believe the video is authentic, and because some faces were blurred out, it may suggest that those individuals may be involved in upcoming plots.

Libyan Prime-Minister Steps Down, Nation Seeks Third Prime Minister in Two Months

On Sunday, Libyan Prime Minister Abdullah al-Thani announced that he would resign from office. He is the second prime minister to step down in two months. Al-Thani, who was named acting prime minister in March of this year, was officially appointed to the role of Prime Minister on 8 April. Less than a week later, he decided to step down following an attack on him and his family.

While the details of the attack have not been released, a neighbourhood resident stated that Al-Thani and his family came under attack by a militia as his convoy neared his home. The family escaped the attack, however when they fled to a neighbourhood near to Tripoli’s airport road, where heavy gunfire broke out. No injuries have been reported. This is the second attack on al Thani’s family. In September 2013, while al-Thani was Defence Minister, his son was kidnapped in Tripoli. He was released earlier this year.

Militias have frequently targeted members of the Libyan government in the chaos following the end of the nation’s civil war. On 6 January, The head of Libya’s parliament, Mohamed al-Magariaf, survived an assassination attempt in his home. Weeks later on 29 January, Al-Sadik Abdel-Karim, Libya’s interior minister, survived a barrage of bullets attacking his car as he travelled to a meeting. In October 2013, then-Prime Minister Ali Zeidan was kidnapped at gunpoint and held by militia members in what Zeidan called “an attempted coup.”

Foreign diplomats are also not immune to abduction. On 15 April, gunman -suspected militia members- abducted Jordan’s ambassador to Libya, demanding the release of a Libyan Islamist militant. In March, unidentified gunmen kidnapped Mohamed bin Sheikh, secretary to the Tunisian ambassador in Tripoli. There are no reports indicating he has been released. In January, gunmen detained six Egyptian diplomats and embassy employees, demanding the release of a Libyan militia commander in Egypt.

In his resignation letter, posted on Libya’s government’s website, al-Thani called the attempt on him and his family a “cowardly attack,” and added, “I do not accept a single drop of Libyan blood be shed because of me and I do not accept to be a reason for fighting among Libyans because of this position […]Therefore I apologize for not accepting my designation as interim prime minister.”

Al-Thani will remain interim prime minster until a replacement can be found to lead the caretaker government.

Nigeria Launches Search for Abducted Schoolgirls

The Nigerian military has joined the search for at least 100 teenage girls who were abducted from a secondary school in the remote north-eastern region of Nigeria.  It is believed that Boko Haram militants are behind the kidnapping and that they may have taken the group to a forest located near the Cameroonian border.  Officials have indicated that the air force, army, police and local volunteers are involved in the search.

Sources have indicated that the gunmen, riding in trucks and on motorcycles, stormed the town after sundown, torching several buildings before opening fire on troops who were guarding the school.  The gun battle, which occurred on Monday, reportedly lasted several hours however the militants were ultimately able to overpower the troops and enter the school.  According to multiple eyewitnesses, some of the schoolgirls in the Chibok area of southern Borno state narrowly escaped their kidnappers by jumping off a truck in the middle of the night as the gunmen sought to take them away.  According to a security source, “we were able to follow the path of the trucks and we found it broke down deep in the bush,” adding “we are now trying to locate the whereabouts of the abducted girls.”  A local politician has indicated that about fifty army soldiers had been stationed near the school ahead of annual exams.

Boko Haram has repeatedly attacked schools in the northeast region, during an insurgency that has killed thousands since 2009.  In an attack earlier this year in Borno state, eyewitnesses reported that Boko Haram gunmen had surrounded a girl’s school, forcing the student to leave and ordering them to immediately return to their villages.  The militant group has also been blamed for a series of school massacres, including the mass shooting of students in their sleep earlier this year in Yobe state.  Such attacks, coupled with Boko Haram’s insurgency, have crippled education in Borno, with schools across the state being shut down in a bid to curb such attacks.

Al Qaeda weapons ship docks in Aden

11 April- A ship manned by al Qaeda militants and loaded with weapons arrived at Yemen’s port in Aden. As the militants began to unload the weapons, they clashed with from Yemen’s anti –smuggling unit, and re-boarded the ship. As the militants sailed away from the dock, they were followed by Yemeni coast guard and navy, however security forces lost the trail of the ship. It is reported that two militants were killed by security forces; however it is unclear whether they were killed in clashes at the port or on sea.The Yemeni Interior minister had issued a warning on 9 April that an al Qaeda ship had departed from Djbouti, and was thought to be loaded with weapons and heading to Aden, approximately 154 nautical miles away. The ship was thought to be manned by militants from Yemen’s eastern Hadramout province. During the 2011 Arab Spring, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) used the chaos to their advantage and seized control of vast areas in Yemen’s south, including Hadramout. Yemeni military and counter-terrorism efforts have allowed the nation to successfully recapture the land; however the region remains a stronghold for AQAP militants.

Yemen has experienced a large amount of weapons smuggling in recent years. Last year, a senior Yemeni official confirmed that weapons smugglers are taking advantage of the many small, unpopulated islands in the Red Sea to engage in criminal activities. The anonymous official said, “It is easy for large ships to unload their cargo there, with this later being smuggled into Yemen on smaller fishing boats.”

Arms are smuggled into Yemen for two main reasons: first, they are used in terror tactics and political by militants, and second, they are for financial profit, often being sold into nearby countries.

Yemen has a long coastline, approximately 2,200 km (1,367 miles), however Yemen does not have strong maritime security. The nation’s naval force consists of (as of 2011) only 1700 troop and 20 patrol ships. They lack sufficient personnel and equipment to effectively monitor their maritime coast. Officials have complained that large arms shipments are entering through the port, not only for use by AQAP, but also by Yemen’s Houthi (“Youth”) movement, an insurgent group that has been present in Yemen since 2004.