MS Risk Blog

Security Advisory: FIFA World Cup

The group stage is over and we’re into the knockout stages following today’s rest day. The tournament has now finished in four locations: Cuiaba, Curitiba, Manaus, and Natal but I’m sure the party will continue in full force despite the lack of visiting teams.

With regard to the potential violence of South American fans I mentioned yesterday, an Argentine fan was shot in the leg during a dispute in Porto Alegre (the closest host city to the Argentine border). Brazil previously had a ban on selling alcohol in stadia due to violent fans, this law was rescinded as a FIFA stipulation for hosting the tournament, indicating that there is a propensity for drunken violence at these matches. When it comes to international rivalry, things may get even worse. I’m not forecasting the apocalypse however, be aware of your surroundings and don’t get baited into an argument with rowdy fans from another country.

The heavy weather in North of Brazil proved too much for many fans. There were an unfortunate number of empty seats for kick off due to the widespread flooding and impassable streets. One report stated a 40min drive took 4hrs! This had been a serious concern for matches in both Recife and Natal however the storm has been weathered and there is only one match to go in Recife on Sunday but the forecast is for rain. Just be ready with an alternative route in mind and leave plenty of time to get to the game, this has to take into account both the transit time and the large security queues that could be even longer when have the staff can’t make it for similar reasons. Be aware of your valuables in these instances, tropical rain isn’t a misty shower like NYC or London; you will be drenched to the core in a matter of minutes so be prepared to get very wet, very quickly, while keeping your phone, money, and tickets dry.

Security Advisory: Fifa World Cup

Last day of the group stages and the big news at the moment is the torrential rain in Recife for the big USA vs Germany match scheduled for this evening.  If it keeps falling at the current rate, the match maybe cancelled.  Equally important is the difficulty some fans are having at getting to the match.  Get moving early if you want to get in and see the game, if it happens….

With the qualifications almost set the concern now is the future games between neighbouring South American countries.  These have a higher likelihood of getting rowdy, even violent.  As we saw in the Argentina match yesterday, they didn’t mind taunting the Brazilians in the stadium and they will be likely to carry on outside the stadium as well. Of particular note are Brazil vs Chile, and Colombia vs Uruguay both on Saturday.  Hopefully this concern proves unfounded but it would be foolish not to be aware of the possibility.

Today’s matches are in Brasilia (28C, 53% Humidity, Clear), Sao Paulo (29C, 56% H, Clear), Recife (28C, 100%H, heavy rain trailing off towards the end of game time), Curitiba (22C, 83%H, foggy, clearing later).

Militants Reportedly Kidnap Women and Children in Borno State

Unconfirmed reports indicated Wednesday that suspected Boko Haram militants have abducted more than sixty women and young girls in the restive northeastern region of Nigeria. If confirmed by officials, the latest abduction will likely fuel further public frustration over the Nigerian government’s inability to end the five-year insurgency.

The latest mass kidnapping to hit Nigeria reportedly occurred during a raid last week in Kummabza village in the Damboa district of Borno state, which left at least thirty people dead. Although Nigeria’s defense headquarters in Abuja indicated on Monday that it was “yet to confirm the several reports on the abduction of girls in Borno as of now,” a senior officer in the Damboa local government did state “over 60 women were hijacked and forcefully taken away by the terrorists,” adding “the village was also destroyed. Some of the survivors of the attack, who do not have means of transporting themselves, especially old women and men, trekked to Lassa, in the Askira-Uba local government area of Borno state, 25 kilometers away….Others went to Gulak in Adamawa state, where they are now taking refuge.”

A security source indicated late Tuesday that Nigerian security forces are investigating reports of the mass kidnapping in villages located in the northeastern state of Borno, where Boko Haram militants abducted more than 200 schoolgirls two months ago. Sources have indicated that military officials are currently looking into reports that suspected Islamist insurgents raided at least three villages over the weekend, located 100 kilometers (60 miles) from the state capital Maiduguri. Nigerian media are reporting that as many as 91 villagers had been kidnapped, most of them women and young girls, however these reports have not been verified. While the militant group, which has killed thousands in bomb and gun attacks, was initially focused on targeting government and security targets as well as churches and those Muslim leaders who rejected their brand of Islam, recently, Boko Haram militants have increasingly been targeting civilians, gaining global attention when they kidnapped more than 200 girls from a school in the remote Borno village of Chibok in April.

The abductions are the latest to take place in the state of Borno, which has been the worst affected by the militant group’s five-year insurgency. On April 14, Boko Haram militants kidnapped more than 200 teenaged girls from their dormitories at a boarding school in Chibok while on June 7, at least 20 young mothers from a nomadic settlement in and around the village of Garkin Fulani were also reportedly kidnapped, however it has since been claimed that their disappearances could be due to annual migration. Last week’s kidnappings are believed to be an attempt by the militant group to refocus attention on its demands for the release of militant fighters. Boko Haram has indicated that it would be willing to release the 219 schoolgirls in exchange for the freedom of its fighters who are currently being held in Nigerian jails.

Meanwhile in a separate incident, unidentified gunmen have killed at least thirty-eight people, mostly women and children, in raids that targeted two villages in northern Kaduna state, an area of the country that has been plagued by years of sectarian conflict. According to the head of the area’s local government, Emmanuel Adamu Danzaria, the late Monday attacks targeted the remote villages of Fadan Karshi and Nandu, in the southern region of Kaduna state, adding, “twenty-one people were killed in Karshi and 17 others were killed in Nandu. We are yet to identify those behind the attacks.” Ahmed Maiyaki, spokesman for Kaduna Governor Mukhtar Yero, confirmed the attacks and the death toll however he declined to discuss which group may have been responsible. Kaduna, which has a religiously divided capital city, has seen waves of violence that has often involved the area’s Christians and Muslims, with the unrest often being sparked by elections and other political disputes. Following Nigeria’s 2011 polls, hundreds were killed in Kaduna. Separately, in rural areas, bloodshed has been linked to fighting over land, which has erupted between agrarian groups and a tribe of composed of mainly nomadic herdsmen, the Fulani.

Morning Blasts in Cairo

As many as six bombs have been detonated across Cairo, resulting in at least six injuries, including injuries sustained by a potential suspect. The first three blasts occurred minutes apart at metro stations in Cairo during rush hour. Reports have indicated that a fourth explosion detonated later, injuring the sixth victim. The blasts occurred at Shubra station, Ghamra station, Haydek al-Quba Station, and Ezbet al Nakhl station.

On Facebook, the Egyptian Ministry of Interior acknowledged only two of the blasts; those at Shubra and Ghamra stations. The ministry said that the explosion at Shubra station was caused by an improvised explosive device (IED), and the bomb at Ghamra station was a sonic explosive hidden in a rubbish bin. No one was injured in the Ghamra explosion. One man, considered a suspect, was wounded at the Subra station. He appeared to be carrying a homemade explosive device.

Metro services are operating normally.

Approximately an hour later, two other bombs struck near a courthouse in Heliopolis. Two IEDs were placed underneath two cars, causing damage to the vehicles but inflicting no injuries. A third IED was found in the vicinity and defused. Security forces are investigating the incidents and searching for further explosives.

The bombings are the first since President Abdul Fattah al Sisi became president in Early June. Violence and attacks targeting Egyptian security became commonplace after the ouster of Mohamed Morsi in July of last year. The attacks were originally concentrated in the Sinai Peninsula, a stronghold for militant groups, but gradually moved west into Nile Valley Egypt. The Egyptian government has accused the Muslim Brotherhood of supporting militant groups intent on targeting government and security forces, and in November of last year, the Egyptian government declared the Muslim Brotherhood a terrorist organization, seizing assets and imprisoning large numbers of individuals accused of affiliations with the group.

While no groups have yet taken responsibility for the attacks, Sinai based extremist group Ansar Beit al-Maqdis, has previously taken responsibility for some of the deadliest attacks in Egypt, including a bombing at a police station in Mansoura in December that left at least 15 dead and 134 injured. The group has stated that their violent actions are in direct relation to the actions taken against the Muslim Brotherhood by the Egyptian government and security forces. In April 2014, the Cairo Court for Urgent Matters designated Ansar Beit al-Maqdis as a terrorist organization. Nearly two weeks after their designation, on April 30, the group posted a YouTube video in which spokesman, Abu-Ahmad al-Misri says, “We have suicide bombers who could turn Egypt into a hell. Our main target is killing off al-Sisi, the Egyptian army, the apostates, and Christians of Egypt.”

Immediately after Sisi’s landslide victory, Ansar Beit al-Maqdis issued a warning: “there will be a decisive battle between faith and disbelief if al-Sisi continues to rule Egypt.” On the militant group’s Twitter feed, the group added, “Will Al-Sisi make it to rule Egypt? If he does, will he continue? It is a battle between faith and infidelity. Finally, we would like to say to tyrants, expect a catastrophe in your backyard, God willing.”

As a result of these messages, security forces have remained heighted in Cairo and other major cities. Once sources said, “Ambushes will be deployed all over Cairo and all vital facilities, which are expected to be under attack by elements of the terrorist group, will also be secured.”

Apart from Ansar Beit al Maqdis, extremist group Ajnad Misr have also been in operation in Cairo, but have fallen relatively silent in recent months. Analysts also fear that the actions could be conducted by individual extremists, or fighters returning from Syria, whose goal would be to destabilise the presidency of al-Sisi and further weaken the Egyptian economy.

Security Advisory: Fifa World Cup

We’re down to the last two days of the group stages and all is going swimmingly.  No incidents reported amongst fans however the Italian contingent has complained about Uruguayan propensity for biting in the box.  When all else fails…

A sit-in, or rather a live-in, protest was set up last night in front of the local government buildings in Sao Paulo.  Protestors will continue to try and capitalise on the media presence during the tournament.  As we progress towards the elimination rounds, expect attempts at protest to increase and this to be reciprocated with efforts of suppression by the security services.

Today’s games are in Porto Alegre (20C, 100% Humidity, heavy rain early clearing towards game time), Salvador (27C, 94%H, slight chance of early rain clearing in the afternoon), Manaus (30C, 89%H, slight chance of rain), and Rio (30C, 94%H, clear).  The Maracana in Rio de Janeiro had fan incursions in the first two games and none during the Belgium vs Russia game.  Although this may have been down to a lack of enthusiasm on behalf of those fans, I suspect it has more to do with enhanced security presence following the embarrassment of the first two matches.

As we near the end of the group stages, fans who don’t have tickets to later matches may be tempted to try pitch invasions or incursions into venues; do not be tempted by such stupidity.  It will only get you arrested and deported.  Deportation may be a badge of honour when it’s done on a political basis but it will be a huge embarrassment when done for criminal reasons.