MS Risk Blog

MENA Security Update

Egypt

9 July – Roadside bomb kills 1, injures 4

An Egyptian soldier was killed after a roadside bomb targeted armoured vehicle in El-Arish, in the Sinai Peninsula. The attack also wounded four soldiers.

Egypt experienced a short period of peace immediately following Egyptian President al-Sisi’s election; however, bombings and protests have resumed. On the one year anniversary of the ouster of President Mohamed Morsi on 3 July, the nation experienced a series of bombings in Kerdasa, Abbaseya, and Imbaba. Security forces and government buildings have been regularly targeted, but several incidents have killed and wounded civilian bystanders.

In Alexandria, police forces arrested four suspects on 7 June in connection with bomb blasts in a train station in Alexandria earlier in the week. The explosion took place between two of the cars of a train heading to Sidi Gaber neighbourhood, injuring seven. The suspects were reportedly “young members of the Muslim Brotherhood who were trained by high profile leaders to attack police facilities and public transportations”, according to Egypt’s Interior Ministry. In a statement released on Friday, the ministry accused the Muslim Brotherhood of attempting to create “a state of chaos”.

Iraq

10 July – Islamic State seizes nuclear materials

Iraq’s envoy, in a letter to the UN, has warned that the militant group ISIS has seized nuclear materials in the Iraqi city of Mosul. The group obtained approximately 40 kilograms of uranium compounds, used for scientific research at a university. The UN atomic agency (IAEA) has said the low-grade material is not a significant security risk. US officials echoed these remarks, stating that the uranium was not believed to be enriched, and unlikely to be useful for weapons development.

The letter sent to the UN by Ambassador Mohamed Ali Alhakim called for international assistance to “stave off the threat of their use by terrorists in Iraq or abroad”. Al-Alhakim added, “Terrorist groups have seized control of nuclear material at the sites that came out of the control of the state […] These nuclear materials, despite the limited amounts mentioned, can enable terrorist groups, with the availability of the required expertise, to use it separately or in combination with other materials in its terrorist acts.” Despite the uranium’s lack of utility, an IAEA spokesperson said “any loss of regulatory control over nuclear and other radioactive materials is a cause for concern”.

A day before the letter was received, Iraqi officials confirmed that ISIS had militants captured the Muthanna complex, an abandoned chemical weapons factory northwest of Baghdad. The complex houses remnants of rockets containing nerve agents, including sarin gas. ISIS is now in control of an area between Iraq and Syria that is approximately the size of Belgium.

Israel/Palestine

8 July – Israel, Palestine attacks continue

An Israeli military spokesman has said that since Monday, Israeli air forces attacked 750 targets and dropped 800 tons of bombs. Palestinian militants fired 230 rockets from the Gaza Strip on Wednesday. On 9 July, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announced that Israel has expanded Operation Protective Edge in response to the continuing rocket attacks, he has also called on reservists suggested that a ground phase could occur. Fighting has escalated after three Israeli teens that went missing were found dead. The Israeli government accused Hamas, which has denied responsibility. Retaliatory attacks on Palestinians have left 75 dead, including 15 children.

Jordan

7 July – ISIS Leader suggests Jordan is next target

ISIS leader and self proclaimed caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi has suggested that Jordan will be the next target for ISIS, and refugees who have fled there could be first in the line of fire. The Jordanian military has been on the offensive for several weeks as ISIS gained traction in Iraq, but it is now believed that Syrian civilians at the Azraq camp near the Iraqi border are in the danger zone.

Oraib al-Rantawi, a Jordanian political analyst, called the threat by ISIS “real and imminent”, adding, “We cannot afford the luxury of just waiting and monitoring. The danger is strategic – and getting closer.”

The US Department of Defence has awarded a contract to Raytheon and Lockheed Martin to supply twenty Javelin Block 1 tactical missiles to Jordan’s military, to be completed by 30 September.

Lebanon

7 July – 28 arrested in Lebanon for suicide bomb plot

Twenty-eight people, reportedly members of the militant group ISIS, have been charged with buying equipment to carry out suicide bomb attacks in Beirut. Seven of the group are in custody. The names and nationalities of those charged have not been released.

Lebanon has been in the crossfire of sectarian violence do to conflicts in Syria and the ISIS insurgencies in Iraq and Syria. The nation has suffered a series of attacks in recent weeks. On 20 June, Lebanon’s General Security service narrowly escaped a suicide bombing near the Syrian border. On 23 June, a suicide bomber blew up his car near an army checkpoint in Beirut, killing himself and a security officer. Two days later, a Saudi suicide bomber detonated his explosives near the Saudi embassy, wounding three security officers.

Lebanese authorities have carried out a series of security raids in the capital and other parts of the country in recent weeks. In mid June, security forces detained 17 people at a Beirut hotel on suspicion of planning attacks; the French foreign ministry confirmed that at least one of the men detained was a French National. All were released the following day.

Libya

15 June – Hiftar facing dwindling support

Libya’s rogue general, Khalifa Hifter, is losing support for his revolt against militants in Eastern Libya. Many Libyans initially supported Hifter’s plan to drive extremists out of Benghazi, particularly as the weakened government had failed to take significant action in the region. However, Hifter troops have been unable to gain the advantage against the rebels, and many believe his actions are laying the ground for his political aspirations.

In Benghazi, the militant group Ansar al-Sharia is responsible for a great deal of violence in the region. Hifter initially set out to target this group, but his mission expanded to include other Islamists in the region. Hifter’s expanded mission and subsequent standoff has resulted in damage to homes, farms, and livestock. One tribe in Benghazi has demanded that Hifter’s troops leave the area or it would join the fight against him, officials and residents there said.

Hifter also oversaw the storming of the GNC building in Tripoli in May, convincing some that the 71 year old general has political goals. He called for an emergency government to replace the GNC and guide the country toward new elections. Since then, Hifter has made blanket indictments of Libya’s non­militant Islamists as well as the insurgents. Many believe he is styling himself after Egyptian President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi, led a crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt over the past year. During a recent news conference, Hifter called the Libyan branch of the Muslim Brotherhood an “epidemic” that “the Libyan soil will not absorb.” Many Islamist supporters who disagree with militant actions now feel targeted.

One member of Libya’s General National Congress said, “Hifter inserted himself into a scenario where he is the cavalier on a white horse who came to save the day.” He added, however, “Hifter’s military power is actually quite limited. He hasn’t been able to control the situation.”

An anonymous former member of a brigade in Benghazi said, “Both sides — Ansar al-Sharia and Hifter — are illegal bodies working outside the state. So it’s a dilemma for everybody, and we don’t like either of them. We are worried about where this violence will take us.”

Qatar

10 July – ISIS to Qatar: “Cancel the World Cup or we’ll bomb it”

In a message posted on an ISIS media forum, the group has warned FIFA, the governing body of world football, that they will bomb the World Cup if it is held in Qatar in 2022. The group said they would target the event with long-range Scud missiles. The full message reads:

“Dear Joseph, [Joseph “Sepp” Blatter, President of FIFA]

We had sent a message to you back in 2010, when you decided or were bribed by the former Amir of Qatar to have the 2022 world cup in Qatar. Now, after the establishment of the Caliphate state, we declare that there will be no world cup in Qatar since Qatar will be part of the Caliphate under the rule of the Caliph Ibrahim Bin Awad Alqarshi (Al Baghdady’s full name) who doesn’t allow corruption and diversion from Islam in the land of the Muslims. This is why we suggest that you will decide upon a replacement country instead of Qatar. The Islamic state has long-rang scud missiles that can easily reach Qatar, as the Americans already know.

Thanks.”

Photos released earlier this month show ISIS militants parading a Scud ballistic missile through the streets of Raqqa in Syria. It is likely the insurgents captured the missile from a Syrian military base in 2013. However experts do not believe the missile is operable. One astute blogger wrote, “The only danger that Islamic State scud is to anyone at the moment is if they accidentally run over a pedestrian showing it off”.

Saudi Arabia

8 July – Saudi Arabia faces security crisis on two borders

Three mortar bombs landed inside Saudi Arabia, near a block of flats outside the northern town of Arar, near the Iraqi border. There were no casualties reported, however the mortars stoked fears in citizens who are facing ISIS on their Iraqi border. Last week, King Abdullah announced an increase in security after Islamic State declared a caliphate and made advances in Iraq. The kingdom is deploying 30,000 troops to its borders. Saudi authorities fear that the militant group could radicalise their citizens.

In the south, Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), which is based in Yemen, has long had the goal of bringing down the House of Saud and establishing a cross-border caliphate in Islam’s holy city of Mecca. Over the weekend, six Saudi members of al Qaeda launched an attack on al-Sharurah, near the border with Yemen. Two of the militants grabbed 10 hostages and shut themselves into a government building where they blew themselves up on Saturday. Five attackers were killed and one was captured in clashes with security forces. Four border guards and one hostage were also killed.

Syria

8 July – Popular Radical Australian Cleric joins Islamic State

Musa Cerantonio, a radical Muslim cleric who renounced his Australian citizenship last year, has travelled to Syria to support the newly established Islamic State, making him the third cleric from Australia to travel to Syria to support the jihadist cause. Cerantonio left Australia in 2013 and was believed to be hiding in the Philippines, possibly taking shelter with one of several al Qaeda-linked jihadist groups in the area. The cleric openly supported ISIS prior to their declaration of a caliphate, and subsequently travelled to Syria to fulfil the request made by the Islamic State on 1 July for Muslims, especially those with needed skills, to join the caliphate.

Cerantonio, a popular figure in radicalised circles, relies on effective social media to spread his message. He has re-tweeted ISIS statements as well as his own support for the group while calling for the death of Western leaders. A 2014 by the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation concluded that one in four foreign fighters followed Cerantonio’s Twitter account and that his Facebook page was the third-most ‘liked’ page among radicalised militants.

Meanwhile, a UN report released on Tuesday suggests that the Middle East could become embroiled in wider sectarian warfare. The report states, “Growing numbers of radical fighters are targeting not only Sunni (Muslim) communities under their control but also minority communities including the Shi’ites, Alawites, Christians, Armenians, Druze and Kurds.” The report adds, “ISIL has shown itself willing to fan the flames of sectarianism, both in Iraq and in Syria. Any strengthening of their position gives rise to great concern.”

Tunisia

9 July – Tunisia raises terror alert level

Tunisia has raised its security alert level in cities and at sensitive sites, especially during iftar, the breaking of fast at sunset during Ramadan. The move came following a landmine blast that killed four soldiers July 2nd on Jebel Ouergha, El Kef province. A mine blast in the same area wounded six troops a day earlier.

During the funeral of the four slain soldiers, Defence Minister Ghazi Jeribi vowed that security forces would track down and besiege the terrorists to prevent new attacks on civilian and military targets. He stated that the war on terror “is of concern to all Tunisian people and requires that all be mobilised to protect our homeland.”

Prime Minister Mehdi Jomaa echoed these sentiments: “We are no longer waiting for terrorism to come to us, but have gone to its hotbeds in order to confront it and eliminate them.”

Security forces have begun to storm terrorist hideouts in the mountains along the Algerian border, between Jendouba and El Kef provinces. Tunisian forces have been fighting al-Qaeda affiliated militants barricaded in the mountains for over a year.

Yemen

8 July – Thousands of families flee fighting in Amran

As many as ten thousand families have fled the Yemeni city of Amran, 30 miles north of the capital Sanaa. The families evacuated to escape a battle between Shi’a rebels and the military. Clashes broke out last week between Yemeni troops and the Houthis, a rebel group which seeks greater autonomy for northern Yemen. The attack ended a ceasefire that had been set in place on 23 June. Local officials claim that over 200 people had been killed and 100 wounded on Tuesday as rebel groups captured the area. The officials also reported dozens of bodies were lying in the streets.

The Houthis, a Shi’a group, have said their fight was against members of the Sunni Islamist Islah political party. The Houthis claim to have no intention of attacking Sanaa, but Amran has long been a stronghold of the the Bani al-Ahmar tribe, whose members hold prominent positions of the party.

The Houthis have accused the Yemeni government of breaking the ceasefire and blame army units loyal to Islah for advancing in the Jawf province. The government responded that the advance was prompted by the failure of Houthis to vacate positions as they had promised.

The Yemeni Red Crescent has issued a call for help. It is believed that nearly 5,000 families remain trapped inside the city.

Wow!
The battle of the Goliaths turned out to be David vs Goliath where David forgot his slingshot… What a slaughter! And the worry surrounding the potential violence in the event of a Brazilian loss seems to have been well founded. The three biggest cities in Brazil (Rio, Sao Paulo, Belo Horizonte) all saw widespread security issues involving criminals, fans, and tourists. There were several reports of mass robberies where gunmen turned up a bars and robbed a number of people, this was also reported to have happened at the Fan Fest on the beach on Copacabana however some reports remain uncorroborated. There were reports of Brazilian fans fighting Germans as well as other Brazilians.
Tonight’s semi-final match in Sao Paulo (19C, 68% Humidity, slight chance of rain) will certainly see an enhanced security presence in the wake of yesterday’s violence. Hopefully, most of the violent criminals are too hungover from yesterday’s disaster to start trouble tonight but it should be anticipated nonetheless. Argentina, Brazil’s biggest rival, is playing tonight and their fans have a history of belligerence including during this tournament when they jumped a fence to get into the Maracana. If Argentina win or lose, be aware of the potential for violent confrontation between the Argentine supporters and Brazilians.
Leave plenty of time to negotiate getting to the match and through security and leave valuables back at the hotel. Have some spare cash stashed away somewhere on you so if you do get robbed, you have some means of getting home. This advice applies to those going to the game or just watching at a bar or Fan Fest. Importantly, leave at the first sign of trouble. Don’t wait around for things to degrade and then try to leave when it’s too late.
Enjoy the match. It is fixing to be another stunner. Let’s see if anyone will score 4 goals in 6 minutes…

Al-Shabaab Carryout Daring Attack in Mogadishu

Late on Tuesday, al-Shabaab militants continued their assault on the capital city by launching a major bomb attack and armed assault on Somalia’s presidential palace. The latest incident has resulted in the firing of Somalia’s intelligence and police chiefs as the militant group has successfully carried out a number of deadly attacks over the Ramadan period, with warnings that attacks will continue.

The raid began with a suicide bomber detonating a car at a barrier near the entrance to the compound, with militants later attacking the presidential palace from two directions. The attack continued for hours as the militants penetrated the heavily fortified complex and fought with security guards inside. On the ground sources have indicated that Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Prime Minister Abdiweli Sheikh Ahmed were not at the presidential palace at the time of the attack and are both safe.

Local police officer Ali Hussein has confirmed the attack, stating “there was an attack on the presidential palace, with gunmen attacking a checkpoint at the rear of the compound,” adding “there was a major explosion and security forces are fighting them.” It took security officials several hours to control the situation, with sources indicating that at least nine attackers were killed in the incident.

An al-Shabaab spokesman has confirmed that the Al-Qaeda-linked group was behind the attack, claiming that their commandos had managed to seize the president’s office inside the presidential compound known as the Villa Somalia. He further indicated that fourteen government soldiers had been killed in the assault however these claims have not been confirmed by Somali government officials.

During a press conference on Wednesday, Information Minister Mustafa Dhuhulow confirmed that police and intelligence heads – Abdihakim Saaid and Bashir Gobe respectively – have been replaced with immediate effect, adding that three of the attackers have been arrested while a fourth has been killed.

The attack appears to be a repeat of an al-Shabaab assault against the presidential palace that occurred in February. In May the Islamist insurgents also launched a similar attack against the national parliament. At the start of the holy month of Ramadan, al-Shabaab’s spokesman promised that the groups fighters would step up their attacks, particularly throughout the capital city. The militant’s warnings appear to be coming true as al-Shabaab militants have carried out a number of attacks throughout Mogadishu, attacks which have further highlighted the capital’s security issues. Further attacks targeting the Somali government are expected over the coming weeks as al-Shabaab attempts to remove the Western-backed government.

Meanwhile, al-Shabaab has threatened to kill Christians at an exclusive beach resort in Kenya. In leaflets that have been distributed over the past several days, al-Shabaab has threatened to kill Christians staying at beach resorts in Lamu and has warned the Kenyan government against killing their “Muslim brothers”. Over the past several weeks, the Kenyan ooastal area has seen a number of attacks carried out by al-Shabaab militants. Last month, at least eighty-seven people were killed in the area after the militant group launched several attacks.

Security Advisory: World Cup

The BIG semi-final!! The two pre-tournament favourites, Brazil and Germany, meet this evening in Belo Horizonte. Belo recently came into the limelight when a partially constructed overpass collapsed on a bus and two unoccupied cars. This event briefly instigated a resurgence of the fears about building quality of stadia and so on but we have not had any concerns thus far and are certainly unlikely to have any problems in the remaining 4 games.
The big story over the last few days was the corruption around the illegal selling of tickets including valuable VIP tickets with revenues of up to half a million USD per game. With several arrests, we hope this doesn’t make tickets even harder to come by. Some are estimating tickets to the final going for $16000. So if you have them KEEP THEM SAFE!
With Brazil playing in tonight’s match, the country will be at a virtual standstill; in the sense that they won’t be driving around so much as dancing around. Again, the concern about chaos in the wake of a Brazilian loss is resurfacing however, being knocked out of the semi-finals without the star player seems to be a more acceptable end to the campaign than losing to the Colombians. Nonetheless, be aware of the potential for the mood to sour and things to turn nasty very quickly after the game. Have an idea of how to get back to the hotel in a hurry after watching the match at Fan Fests or elsewhere.
As the profile of the games increases, so will the potential for publicity seekers to capitalise on the opportunity and the associate security presence as well. Security cordons will be widened to keep trouble makers away. Ticket checks will be more rigorous, especially as crowds are likely to try and force their way into this unique event. Due to the enhanced security, people will be arriving early and hanging around the stadium; try to resist the urge to drink too much. Drunken foreigners coming out of a late match are easy targets.
With 8 World Cup titles between them, these are two goliaths of the sport! This will be a great match.

Sixty Women Believed to Have Escaped Boko Haram Militants

Security sources indicated Monday that more than sixty women and girls are reported to have escaped from captivity.

Reports have indicated that more than sixty women and girls have escaped from the Nigerian Islamist group Boko Haram. They are believed to be from a group of sixty-eight women who were kidnapped last month near the town of Damboa in north-eastern Borno state. Boko Haram is still holding more than 200 schoolgirls who were abducted in April of this year.

Security sources have indicated that the women escaped when the militants went to attack a military base near Damboa on Friday. The Nigerian military has also reported that its troops killed more than fifty rebels during clashes that occurred that night. Due to on going insecurities in the region, coupled with poor access to the area, the number of women who managed to escape from Boko Haram remains unclear. However a local vigilante has reported receiving an alert from his colleagues indicating that about sixty-three abducted women and girls had made it back home late on Friday.

Meanwhile frustration continues to grow as more than 200 schoolgirls kidnapped in Chibok, Borno state, on April 14 are still being held captive. Activists of the Bring Back Our Girls movement attempted to march towards the presidential palace in Abuja on Sunday however they were turned back by security forces. According to one activist, Aisha Yesufu, “it’s 83 days today that the girls have been abducted…We have been coming out for 68 days and nobody has really listened to us.”

Nigeria’s overstretched and under-resourced military has been incapable of fighting Boko Haram’s insurgency, which has already killed thousands over the past five years.