MS Risk Blog

Lebanon’s battle with ISIS: a proxy war for Saudi Arabia and Iran

On Wednesday, Lebanon’s Parliament voted to extend their terms in office to 2017, arguing that the nation’s fragile security situation makes it too difficult to hold elections. The lawmakers, who were elected to four-year terms in 2009, voted last year to remain in office, citing the same security threats. The decision has been denounced by foreign diplomats and human rights organizations who feel that the vote undermines the democratic process. However to many Lebanese citizens, the decision does not come as a surprise.

Lebanon’s government has been paralysed by disagreements among powerful political blocs, and decisively split on the issue of Syria’s civil war. The Prime Minister appointed a new cabinet in February, but the group has been unable to achieve much. Nearly two decades after the end of their own civil war, policymakers have only agreed to prevent new battles from erupting within the nation.

Lebanon has been without a president since May. The Lebanese Parliament does not elect the president; rather the chosen leader is “rubber stamped” after a regional consensus is met. Currently, the conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran is forestalling that agreement, and Lebanon’s growing battle with ISIS has become a proxy battle between the two nations.

ISIS relies upon a strategy of destabilising a region and entrenching themselves, while avoiding local organised fighting forces until they are ready to engage. This strategy is currently being enacted on the Syrian border with Lebanon. Last week, the terror group killed 11 soldiers north of Tripoli, and ISIS leaders have threatened to plunge the country into another civil war.

Lebanon, a member of the US led coalition to combat ISIS, has received approximately $1 billion in training and equipment from the US since 2006. However the US has been constrained in providing further support as the threat of ISIS encroaches upon the Lebanese border. This is in part due to an American domestic law that guarantees that the US will provide Israel a “qualitative military edge” over its neighbours in the region.

In the absence of US support, Saudi Arabia and Iran have offered competing aid packages to Lebanon; the combined offers amount to billions of dollars in arms from the two opposing nations. However, the offers of assistance are being perceived as political one-upmanship between the foes. Lebanon’s acceptance of either aid package amounts to tacit approval of either the Shiite or Sunni dominated governments.

On Tuesday, France and Saudi Arabia signed a contract to give $3 billion worth of French-made weapons to Lebanon’s military. In August the kingdom provided a $1 billion grant for emergency aid to Lebanon’s military and intelligence agencies. The combined pledges are more than twice the Lebanese estimated annual military budget. The aid, which is set to arrive in the first quarter of 2015, will include training, as well as land, sea and air equipment, including armoured vehicles, heavy artillery, anti-tank missiles, mortars and assault weapons.

In September, Ali Shamkhani, secretary to Iran’s Supreme National Security Council offered a package consisting of antitank weapons, artillery and heavy machine guns. Lebanese Defense Minister Samir Moqbel’s delegation declined to formally respond to Iran’s offer, which could violate a 2007 U.N. Security Council resolution restricting Iranian arms trade.

The Saudi government believes that the Iranian weapons will be directed toward Hezbollah; a Shiite dominated political organization that is opposed by Saudi Arabia. Hezbollah supports President Assad, whose troops are battling Sunni opposition, which is backed by Saudi Arabia. The Kingdom believes that Iran is more interested in countering Saudi backing than assisting the Lebanese military.

The 65,000-strong Lebanese military (arguably the least sectarian organization in the country), is less effective than Hezbollah, whose armed wing is better equipped and organized, and battle hardened after wars with Israel. However as many Hezbollah fighters have deployed to the war in Syria, the group has become increasingly reliant on the Lebanese military. The Lebanese military has not prevented Shiite Hezbollah fighters from entering Syria to confront Sunni militants fighting against Assad, and they deploy to areas that Hezbollah has cleared and set up checkpoints.

Because of this relationship, Tehran now has a perceived interest in supporting the Lebanese military. However, this relationship has also led the Sunni Muslim community in Lebanon to believe that the army is now taking orders from Hezbollah.

As ISIS moves closer to Lebanon’s border, they benefit from the Lebanese military’s unwillingness to cooperate with Assad. Experts believe that Syria has the only Arab military currently capable of confronting ISIL. More worrisome, Hezbollah has shown a reluctance to battle ISIS, arguing that their involvement will enflame already strained sectarian tensions in Lebanon. It is this enticement that leads ISIS to believe they can ignite a second civil war. ISIS has expressed interest to create new supply routes between Lebanon and Syria as winter unfolds.

In recent weeks, the Lebanese army has suffered setbacks along its long border with Syria. Lebanon shares a short border and rocky relationship with Israel on its only other border. Israel is not a member of the ISIS coalition. The nearest ally, Jordan, does not have the capacity to confront ISIS in Lebanon and protect its own borders with Syria.

Meanwhile, in the absence of a president and a split parliament, the Lebanese policymakers are in gridlock, agreeing only to preserve civil peace and avoid civil or sectarian clashes. However in the face of a growing threat, it is likely that peace will become more difficult to maintain.  The nation is relying on a consensus between Saudi Arabia and Iran before it can put its government in working order, and it appears that consensus is not forthcoming.

Burkina Faso: A Clear Warning to Other Long-Ruling African Leaders

On Friday, Burkina Faso’s long-ruling president Blaise Compaore resigned after four days of violent protests. Last week, Burkinabe citizens took to the streets in the capital city Ouagadougou and in Bobo Dioulasso, protesting a bid by lawmakers to amend the constitution that would allow 63-year-old Compaore to stand for re-election next year. Compaore’s resignation opened a power vacuum and resulted in a tussle within the country’s armed forces. Although initially announcing that General Honore Traore, head of the armed forces, would take power and form a transitional government that would prepare for national elections, by Saturday, Lt. Col. Isaac Zida, a deputy in Compaore’s presidential guard, had also claimed to be in charge – move that resulted in massive protests across Ouagadougou.

Over the past few days the international community has placed increasing pressure on Lt Col. Zida to hand power over to a civilian ruler. Sunday’s protests, organized by the Opposition, demonstrated that Burkinabe’s are not willing to settle for an interim military ruler. On Monday, the African Union (AU) announced that Burkina Faso’s army had acted unconstitutionally when it took over. AU officials have also given the interim leader a two-week deadline to hand over power. Lt Col. Zida has promised to comply with this order. A delegation composed of the presidents of Ghana, Nigeria and Senegal is expected to arrive in Ouagadougou Wednesday, with Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan disclosing that the visit is aimed at facilitating “…the rapid resolution of the current political crisis in Burkina Faso.”

The events in the West African country over the past week not only demonstrated the frustration felt by Burkinabe citizens, with the majority of the country’s population only knowing one president, they also sent a warning to other African leaders who may have desires to alter their country’s constitution in a bid to hold onto power.

Mr Compaore is not the sole leader who has altered the rules in a bid to prolong his incumbency. Chadian President Idriss Deby and Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni, in office for 24 years and 28 years respectively, have both abolished term limits from their country’s constitution. It is likely that both will seek another term in office. Although the AU sanctions those who make constitutional changes for the purpose of staying in power, such threats have had minimal impact. Last week’s events however were a strong sign from Burkinabe citizens and may serve as a much needed wake-up call for those leaders considering staying in power for longer than what is set out in the constitution.

Presidents Considering Altering Constitution to Remain in Power

Angola – President Jose Eduardo dos Santos has ruled the country since 1979. In a bid to ensure that term limits would never impact him seeking re-election, in 2012, Angola’s legislators approved a new constitution under which the leader of the party that has won the most seats in parliament automatically becomes president.

Cameroon – In power since 1982, President Paul Biya was initially barred from seeking re-election in 2011, due to the country’s two-term limit. However in 2008, despite nationwide protests, legislators removed all term limits from the constitution.

Chad– President Idriss Deby has been in power since 1990. In 2005, a referendum eliminated constitutional term limits.

Democratic Republic of Congo – Although President Joseph Kabila is expected to step down ahead of the 2016 presidential elections, there is currently a campaign aimed at changing the constitution’s presidential limits.

Equatorial Guinea– Also in power since 1979 President Teodoro Obian Nguema pushed through a referendum to change the country’s constitution in 2011. The new changes effectively enable him to stand for re-election past the age of 75 and will allow him to handpick his successor.

Rwanda –A campaign for President Paul Kagame to seek a third term in office is currently under way, with the president’s allies suggesting a constitutional change that would allow him to stand for re-election in 2017. Under the current constitution, President Kagame, who was elected in 2003 and 2010, is ineligible to stand for a third term in office.

Uganda– Despite once declaring that “no African head of state should be in power for more than 10 years, Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni has governed since 1986. In 2005, he succeeded in having the constitution changed, with lawmakers removing all term limits.

Zimbabwe – President Robert Mugabe, 90, has been in power since 1980. While in 2013, constitutional changes limited a president to two five-year terms; the changes are not applied retroactively. Consequently President Mugabe will be able to run for another term in office that could keep him in power until he is 97.

Egypt, Gulf States in Advanced Talks for Military Alliance

3 November– Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait are in discussions to develop a military agreement to combat Islamic militants, with the possibility of a joint force to intervene around the Middle East. The Sunni-dominated nations share a view that the region is threatened by Sunni Islamic militants and Islamist political movements. The military pact goes beyond the current engagements in Iraq and Syria as part of the US-led coalition; aiming to target additional hotbeds of extremist activity. The alliance would focus on Libya and Yemen, where radicalised militants have seized control of territories from their respective governments. Egyptian President Abel Fattah el-Sisi has warned that extremists must be dealt with in several places, and that would require “a comprehensive counterterrorism strategy in the region.” Jordan and Algeria have also been approached to join the alliance.

While the talks remain secret, unnamed Egyptian officials have reported that the discussions are in advanced stages. The alliance is considering the establishment of a core force made up of elite troops, aircrafts, and an intelligence service comprised of members of the alliance. The nations have already held bilateral and multilateral war games the past year in advance of an alliance. Reportedly, there remain differences regarding the size of force, funding, location of headquarters, and whether to seek Arab League or U.N. political cover for operations. If the joint forces cannot be agreed upon, the alliance still aims to coordinate military action for pinpoint anti-militant operations. It is thought that actions such as these have already taken place; Egypt and the UAE are believed to have conducted targeted airstrikes in Libya over the summer, and Egypt has reportedly carried out unilateral strikes in Libya; although the Egyptian government denies involvement in either operation.

The alliance is being discussed as violent clashes intensify in Benghazi as the Libyan army attempts to retake areas seized by Islamist militants. On Monday, extremist fighters hit an oil tanker with a rocket propelled grenade, causing fire and major disruption at Benghazi’s port. The Libyan army asked residents in the central al-Sabri district to evacuate ahead of a major military operation. Over 200 people have been killed and several homes destroyed since the Libyan army began its offensive in October, yet residents are fearful of getting caught in crossfire while travelling.

Libya is currently divided by rival governments. The internationally recognized and recently elected government has taken shelter in Tobruk; Islamist militias that overran Tripoli during the summer have reinstituted the previous Islamist government in Tripoli. The nation is also facing a surplus of warring militias and militant groups, and has become a safe-haven for radicalised fighters.

In Yemen, where the government has been battling one of al-Qaeda’s most active branches for years, the government is also contending with Houthi Shiite rebels. The Houthis successfully overran Yemen’s capital, Sanaa, last month. Saudi Arabia has offered support against the Houthis in 2010, believing that the Shiite Houthis are serving as proxy fighters for Iran.

Pan Arab alliances in the past have not succeeded. However the impetus is strong for the coalition. Saudi Arabia and Egypt face a growing militant threat within their borders, and Gulf nations are eager to keep militant threats away from their borders and foreign interests. The multi-national alliance is also intended to serve as a symbol of unity and strength against the perceived influence of Iran. The nations will seek a nod of approval from the US, however Washington has not yet been privy to the talks.

Military Announces It Will Install Transitional Government in Burkina Faso

Burkina Faso’s military has announced that it will install a transitional government, just days after it seized power as President Blaise Compaore resigned. The move came as protesters gathered at the Place de la Nation, in Ouagadougou, protesting the military’s takeover.

Thousands of protesters gathered at the Place de la Nation Sunday, the place where demonstrators have been gathering over the past week in protest of a move by the president to amend the constitution, which would effectively enable him to stand for re-election for a third time. While protests in the early morning were relatively calm, by the afternoon, soldiers had fired in the air to disperse protesters in front of the state TV station. On the ground sources have reported that the situation in front of the state broadcaster’s headquarters became chaotic Sunday afternoon as both opposition leader Saran Sereme and former Defence Minister Kwame Longue had turned up to a rally. It is believed that both had gone there, separately, in order to announce that they could lead the transitional government. Soldiers later barricaded the Place de la Nation, which is the capital city’s main square, in a bid to disperse the crowds. Reports have indicated that at least one demonstrator was killed in Sunday’s protests. A statement released by the military late Sunday disclosed that the soldiers’ moves had been necessary to disperse protesters to “restore order.”

Following days of anti-government protests, long-time leader Blaise Compaore officially resigned late last week, with the army naming Lieutenant Colonel Isaac Zida as leader of a transitional government on Saturday. Thousands of protesters however gathered in Ouagadougou Sunday after the opposition called on civilians to demonstrate against the army’s move. Late Sunday evening, key opposition figures held talks with Col Zida. Those present included Zephirin Diabre, leader of the Union for Progress and Change, former Foreign Minister Ablasse Ouedraogo, ex-Prime Minister Roch Marc Christian Kabore and Benewende Sankara, leader of the Union for Rebirth – Sankarist Party.   Shortly after the meeting, a military spokesman indicated that the army would put in place “a transition body…with all the components to be adopted by a broad consensus.” A statement released by the military further indicated, “power does not interest us, only the greater interest of the nation.”

Under Burkina Faso’s constitution, the president of the Senate should take over in the event that the president resigns. A presidential election should then take place within 60 – 90 days. The African Union (AU), the United States and ECOWAS, the regional economic bloc, have all condemned the military takeover. The UN’s West Africa envoy Mohamed Ibn Chambas has stated that the military must allow a civilian transfer of power, warning that sanctions were a possibility if this did not occur.

While the army has announced that it will hand over power to a transitional body, the situation remains fluid and it is currently unclear when order will be restored. MS Risk advises all travellers in Burkina Faso to be aware of the following:

• A curfew may be imposed later today as attempts are made to restore order. If a curfew is announced, MS Risk advises all travellers to adhere to the curfew hours.
• Protests will likely be called by the opposition over the coming days in a bid to place further pressure on the army to allow a civilian transfer of power. Security forces will likely be deployed across the capital city, especially at government buildings, state TV headquarters and the army’s headquarters. MS Risk advises all travellers to avoid these areas of the capital city and to be aware of your surroundings at all times. We also advise that you stay away from demonstrations and protests as they may turn violent with minimal notice.
• Although Ouagadougou International Airport is currently open, with officials indicating that services should return to normal within the next 24 – 48 hours, given the new wave of demonstrations, officials may opt to close the airport or reduce service in the coming days.
• The government may impose restrictions on travel over the coming days, and may set up roadblocks across the country. You should be aware that illegal roadblocks may also be set up.
• There is a potential for reduced availability in stores and petrol stations while any supply chain interruptions are sorted.

For up to date information on the current situation in Burkina Faso, follow us on @MSRisk_Security or visit our website: www.msrisk.com

Protests in Burkina Faso

On Sunday, thousands of protesters took to the streets of Burkina Faso’s capital city, rallying against the military’s take over. Both the United Nations and the African Union have rejected the military’s takeover, stating military leader’s now in control must hand power to a civilian transitional government or they may face sanctions.

During the early morning hours on Sunday, thousands of protesters took to the streets of Ouagadougou, gathering at the Place de la Nation. While early morning demonstrations appeared calm, by afternoon, reports surfaced of violent clashes between demonstrators and soldiers. Reports have indicated that the country’s national broadcaster, RTB, has gone off air after shots were heard at its headquarters. Witnesses near the scene reported seeing soldiers firing into the air to disperse protesters before forcing journalist to flee. Unconfirmed reports have indicated that crowds had gathered at the state TV headquarters after rumours spread that a popular leader was about to announce that she was willing to lead the transition. Soldiers have since taken over the Place de la Nation, where they have removed thousands of protesters and set up barricades.

Under Burkina Faso’s constitution, the speaker of parliament is supposed to step in as interim head of state following the president’s resignation. However on Friday, the army named second-in-command of the presidential guard, Lieutenant Colonel Isaac Zida, as head of the transitional authority. The opposition, and international mediators, are now calling for the army to step down and to allow a civilian transfer of power, warning that if these conditions are not met, sanctions may be imposed.

Former president Blaise Compaore and his wife have taken refuge in neighbouring Cote d’Ivoire.

The situation remains fluid and it is currently unclear when order will be restored. MS Risk advises all travellers in Burkina Faso to be aware of the following:

• A curfew may be imposed later today as attempts are made to restore order. If a curfew is announced, MS Risk advises all travellers to adhere to the curfew hours.
• Protests will likely be called by the opposition over the coming days in a bid to place further pressure on the army to allow a civilian transfer of power. Security forces will likely be deployed across the capital city, especially at government buildings, state TV headquarters and the army’s headquarters. MS Risk advises all travellers to avoid these areas of the capital city and to be aware of your surroundings at all times. We also advise that you stay away from demonstrations and protests as they may turn violent with minimal notice.
• Although Ouagadougou International Airport is currently open, with officials indicating that services should return to normal within the next 24 – 48 hours, given the new wave of demonstrations, officials may opt to close the airport or reduce service in the coming days.
• The government may impose restrictions on travel over the coming days, and may set up roadblocks across the country. You should be aware that illegal roadblocks may also be set up.
• There is a potential for reduced availability in stores and petrol stations while any supply chain interruptions are sorted.

For up to date information on the current situation in Burkina Faso, follow us on @MSRisk_Security or visit our website: www.msrisk.com