MS Risk Blog

Bombings In Egypt; Protests Expected

20 November 2014– Nine people have been wounded in two bombing incidents in Cairo. Five police officers were injured in an explosion targeting a police outpost near Helwan University in Southern Cairo. Reports from the interior ministry indicate that the assailants threw an incendiary explosive device (IED) from a speeding car as they approached the university.

Earlier today, four Egyptians were wounded in a stampede following a stun grenade detonation at Ramses railway station in Central Cairo. Outside of Cairo, three state transport buses were set ablaze in Sharqiya province. The buses were empty; no injuries were reported.

The series of incidents today is part of a string of attacks that have been conducted in Egypt over recent weeks. On 13 November, sixteen people were wounded when a bomb detonated near a metro train during rush hour. In early November, four people were killed in an explosion on a train carriage in Menoufiya, north of Cairo.

While no one has taken responsibility for the incidents earlier today, militant groups have been targeting security forces around the country since the overthrow of Mohamed Morsi in 2013. Ansar Beit al Maqdis has conducted several bombings and shootings of police and military forces. The group predominantly operates in North Sinai but occasionally targets major cities in the Nile Valley. In mid-November, Ansar Beit al Maqdis announced that they had sworn allegiance to ISIS. A second militant group known as Ajnad Misr (Soldiers of Egypt) also operates in Cairo and has claimed responsibility for several attacks targeting security forces.

Meanwhile, security forces have arrested a Mohammed Ali Bishr, a leading member of the Muslim Brotherhood, now deemed a terrorist organisation by the Egyptian government. Bishr’s arrest was linked to a call for demonstrations at the end of November, however the group organising the demonstrations is Salafi Front. The government has conducted heavy crackdowns against the Muslim Brotherhood since August 2013. The crackdown has given rise to heavy, sometimes violent protests, particularly around universities throughout the nation. Security has been tightened around universities across Egypt; protests supporting former President Morsi have increased in number since the school year began in October. In the past academic year, at least 14 students died in clashes with security forces on campus. In the wake of Bishr’s arrest, it is likely that protests will continue to rise. Heavy clashes are likely on the last Friday of November.

ISIS Takes Control of Libyan City

19 November– Fighters loyal to the extremist group ISIS have taken control of Derna, Libya. The city, with a population of nearly 100,000, rests near the Egyptian border and approximately 200 miles from the EU border with Greece.

The Libyan wing of ISIS refers to itself as the “Barqa” provincial division of the Islamic State. Sources believe that there are approximately 800 ISIS affiliates in the region, operating from six camps and a facility in the Green Mountains. It is believed that at least 300 among them are Libyan fighters who left for Syria and formed part of the al-Battar Brigade which fought in Deir Ezzor, Syria and Mosul, Iraq. The group is believed to be operating a training facility in the Green Mountains for extremists in North Africa. Evidence suggests that fighters have also expanded their presence westward along the Libyan coast. Chapters are known to exist in al Bayda, Benghazi, Sirte, al-Khums and Tripoli.

ISIS supporters have taken advantage of the sustained chaos in Libya that has been unchecked since the 2011 removal of Moammar Gadhafi. Currently, two governments operate in the country and battles regularly erupt between extremist groups and Libyan security forces throughout the nation.

The Barqa branch of ISIS has administrative control over Derna, including controlling the courts, education, and the local radio. In September, ISIS leader Abu Bakar al Baghdadi deployed senior aide Abu Nabil al Anbari to Derna to orchestrate the takeover. In Libya, Anbari enlisted the help of Abu al-Baraa el-Azdi, a Saudi imam who is one of Derna’s top religious judges. In early November a group called “Mujahideen of Libya” swore allegiance to Baghdadi, and intend to operate across the nation. Baghdadi called upon supporters to join the “newest administrative region of the Islamic caliphate.” An audio message released by the group last week threatened the “the secularists and parliamentarians and their pillars from the police and army,” adding, “We have prepared for you from the most bitter of cups, and the worst of deaths.”

The Derna group has already been believed to be active in the region. Last week, the bodies of three known anti-ISIS activists were found beheaded in the region, and the group is suspected of a suicide bombing in Tobruk, where the internationally recognised Libyan government has made its temporary home. The bombing killed one and wounded 14. It is believed that the ISIS supporters also conducted a car bombing near Labraq Air Force base in Al-Bayda, killing four. An ISIS-linked Twitter account indicates that the Tripoli chapter of ISIS supporters was responsible for car bomb attacks last week near the Egyptian and UAE embassies.

Analysts believe ISIS control in Derna could be viable in the short term. Smuggling and trafficking routes known to be operational in Libya could provide them with the ability to fund themselves. Derna, has been known to be a stronghold for Islamic extremism. It is unlikely that residents will push back against ISIS without support, particularly as tribal members in the region have affiliated themselves with the group.

However Libyan security forces are battling the stronghold. Last week, Libya’s air force conducted bombings over ISIS held zones in Derna, striking five positions, including a command centre and training camp. It is believed that six were killed and 20 injured. It is likely that regional forces will take action in limiting the threat from permeating their borders.

Global Terror Attack Deaths Increase Sharply in 2013

According to a new report into international terrorism released this week, the number of deaths caused by terrorism increased by 61% between 2012 and 2013.

The 2014 Global Terrorism Index has revealed that in 2013, there were nearly 10,000 terrorist attacks globally, which represents a 44% increase from the previous year. Over the past year, 17958 people died from terrorist attacks, with the largest increase in deaths primarily due to the on-going civil war in Syria, which began in 2011. Of this number, 14,7222, or 80% of the total of deaths, occurred in just five countries: Afghanistan, Iraq, Nigeria, Pakistan and Syria. India, Somalia, the Philippines, Yemen and Thailand were the next five, accounting for between 1% and 2.3% of global deaths due to terrorism.

According to the report, which is produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), 66% of all deaths from terrorist attacks in 2012 were due to four main terrorist groups: Islamic State, al-Qaeda, the Taliban and Boko Haram. Iraq was the country that was most affected by terrorism in 2013, with more than 6,000 people dying. The report notes that “not only is the intensity of terrorism increasing, its breadth is increasing as well.”

The report, which also investigates terrorism between 2000 and 2013, indicated that while Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries only experienced 5% of all deaths from terrorism since 2000, the report did note that these countries suffered some of the deadliest attacks that have been carried out over the past thirteen years. This includes the 11 September 2001 attacks in the United States; the 2004 train bombings in Madrid, Spain; the 2005 London bombings and the 2012 bombing and shooting attack that occurred in Norway. In 2013, Turkey and Mexico were the OECD countries that had the highest number of deaths from terrorism, 57 and 40 respectively.

Burkina Faso Names Interim President

On Monday, Burkina Faso announced the West African country’s new interim leader who will lead the nation until the next presidential elections, which are due to occur November 2015. The appointment of an interim leader will end weeks of uncertainty in the West African nation after mass protests brought down the 27-year regime of president Blaise Compaore, which resulted in the military seizing power.

Veteran diplomat Michel Kafando has been chosen as Burkina Faso’s interim president. The decision was made after several hours of negotiation, which had started the previous day. Lieutenant Colonel Issac Zida, the army-installed leader, had given the country’s various parties a noon deadline Sunday in order to submit names to a panel of twenty-three mainly civilian electors. The panel later elected Mr Kafando after preferring him to other candidates, which included journalist Cherif Sy and sociologist and ex-minister Josephine Ouedraogo. While Mr Kafando has described the appointment as “more than an honour,” his selection as interim president will now have to be ratified by the country’s Constitutional Council. The election of a civilian interim president homes ahead of a deadline that was imposed by the African Union (AU) and which instructed Burkina Faso to establish interim institutions and to select an interim president by Monday or face sanctions.

On Saturday, the military reinstated the country’s constitution, which was suspended when the army filled the power vacuum that was created by the departure of Compaore. A “transition charter,” effectively an interim constitution agreed upon between the military and civilian, opposition and religious figures last week, was officially signed on Sunday by the military. The signing of the interim constitution by Lieutenant Col Zida effectively marks his acceptance of Burkina Faso’s return to civilian leadership. Under the agreement, the president will appoint a prime minister, either a civilian or military figure, who will head a 25-member transitional government. A civilian will also head a 90-seat parliament, which is known as the National Transitional Council. According to the document, no members of the interim regime will be allowed to stand in the November 2015 presidential elections.

Mr Kafando previously served as the country’s ambassador to the United Nations, between 1998 and 2011. Between 1981 and 1982, he was Burkina Faso’s Foreign Affairs minister. AU chief Nkosazan Dlamini-Zuma has welcomed Mr Kafando’s appointment and has praised the people of Burkina Faso “for their political maturity and sense of responsibility.” The AU chief also called for “a smooth transition under the direction of civil authorities.”

Presidential elections are set to occur in November next year, and will effectively return the country to civilian rule after long-time president Blaise Compaore was ousted in late October.

Boko Haram Invades Three Towns in Northeastern Nigeria

In the past twenty-four hours, Boko Haram militants have invaded three towns in Nigeria’s northeastern states of Adamawa and Borno after being ousted from a key town in the area by civilian vigilantes.

Reports surfaced Friday that Boko Haram militants have seized control of the northeastern town of Chibok, which is home to more than 200 schoolgirls who were kidnapped by the insurgents in April. According to local residents, militants attacked and took control of the town on Thursday evening. Ali Ndume, a senator for Borno state, confirmed that Chibok is now under Boko Haram’s control, adding that security forces posted in the town left the area as the insurgents attacked. The capture of Chibok came hours after the militant group seized control of two other towns in neighbouring Adamawa state.

According to local residents, the Islamist fighters raided the towns of Hong and Gombi, located some 100 kilometres (62.5 miles) from the state capital Yola after they were pushed out of the commercial hub of Mubi, which they seized two weeks ago. Locals in Mubi reported Friday that many of Mubi’s residents have not yet returned to the town over fears that Boko Haram may launch further attacks in a bid to recapture the key town. Mubi, the second largest town in the northeastern Adamawa state, was the biggest town under the militants group’s control and is the first it has lost since August, when Boko Haram’s leader Abubakar Shekau declared a caliphate in the seized areas. Unconfirmed reports have suggested that vigilantes reclaimed the town of Maiha on Wednesday after a fierce battle, with scores of insurgents said to have been killed.

Despite apparently losing control of Mubi, which Boko Haram had renamed Madinatul Islam, or “City of Islam in Arabic, the invasion of Hong and Gombi effectively see’s the militant group moving closer to the state capital city, where thousands of residents have taken refuge in recent months. Local residents in Gombi have reported that since taking control of the town, Boko Haram militants have been patrolling the streets and firing heavy weaponry at random, with other locals disclosing that many are either staying indoors or have fled into the bush, adding that militants burnt down the police station, the local government secretariat and the town’s market after they overpowered the local police. In Hong, which is located 20 kilometres away, the police station was also razed, with the militants reportedly raising their black flag outside the home of a retired military general.

Boko Haram is believed to be in control of more than two dozen towns in the northeastern states of Adamawa, Borno and Yobe. As part of its goal of establishing a hardline caliphate in the region, in recent months Boko Haram has opted to attack and hold towns in the region, a move that was not previously seen in the militant group’s five-year insurgency.