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“Superspreaders” Behind Ebola Outbreak in West Africa

Researchers reported last month that most of the people infected with Ebola in the West Africa epidemic, which began in 2014, got sick through contact with a small number of “superspreaders” with the disease. The West African Ebola epidemic was the largest in history and killed more than 11,300 people, with many of the cases involving people infected while caring for a sick person or burying a body.

The study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences indicates that such “superspreaders” can be extremely dangerous when it comes to infectious disease outbreaks. According to co-author Benjamin Dalziel, an assistant professor of population biology in the college of Science at Oregon State University, “we now see the role of superspreaders as larger than initially suspected,” adding “it was the cases you didn’t see that really drove the epidemic, particularly people who died at home, without making it to a care centre.”

At the time, researches counted cases according to those seen in medical centres, however they later realized that these were a small fraction of the total. According to Dalziel, “there wasn’t a lot of transmission once people reached hospitals and care centres,” adding “in our analysis we were able to see a web of transmission that would often track back to a community-based superspreader.”

Researchers are now reporting that 61 percent of those infected with the disease caught it from people accounting for just three percent of those who got sick. The report went on to say that if superspreading had been completely under control, then about two-thirds of Ebola cases could have been avoided.

Superspreaders have also played a role in the epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2003 and Middle East respiratory Syndrome in 2012.

The study involved researchers from Princeton University, Oregon State University, the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, the Imperial College London and the US National Institutes of Health.

Operation Car Wash and The Future of Latin Americas Political Landscape

A dominant theme in the Latin American press for a while now has been the corruption probes that have instigated the downfall of quite a few members of the Latin American financial and political ruling class. The saga started initially as a money laundering investigation in Brazil in 2014. Operation Car-Wash has since ballooned into a multinational corruption probe that has contributed to the impeachment of a President, to the jailing of billionaires, helped stall the worlds ninth-largest economy and led to a $3.5 billion corporate fine, a world record in a graft case. At the center of attention is Odebrecht, Latin Americas largest construction company whose former CEO has been sentenced to nineteen years in prison last year. New developments are coming out every day as indicted executives and politicians are spilling the beans amid plea bargaining and spiraling media coverage. February was no exception. In Argentina the head of the National Intelligence Agency, Gustavo Arribas, a close ally to President Macri, is under investigation for taking bribes. In Peru former President Alejandro Toledo is alleged to have received $20 million in kickbacks in return for green-lighting Odebrechts bid to build sections of the Interoceanic Highway, which now links Brazil with Perus Pacific ports. Peru has issued an international arrest warrant for Toledo. In Panama thousands of people have taken to the streets in protest over a bribe paid by Odebrecht to former President Ricardo Martinelli in exchange for public contracts. US authorities say Odebrecht paid $59m in bribes 2010 and 2014. Interpol has issued a Red Notice for two of Martinellis sons. Guatemala, which saw its ex-President Otto Perez Molina jailed for corruption, faced the arrest of a Supreme Court Judge in February as part of a nation-wide anti-corruption drive. Odebrechts activities are heavily scrutinized in the Central-American country. Venezuelan authorities raided the Caracas offices of Odebrecht, as prosecutors deepened a probe into the Brazilian construction firm that has admitted paying some $98 million in bribes to obtain government contracts in Venezuela. Amid the fall from grace of many members of the once powerful and rich ruling elite, it remains to be seen where justice starts and politics eventually end. Accusations are rife, however in some countries it takes place during election time. In Ecuador, where the lead opposition candidate is offering a sharp break with ten years of leftist rule, it is not hard to imagine a huge political influence of the continent-wide corruption scandal. Put into the mix Trumpian isolationism, Chinese and Russian bids for influence and the ongoing effects of a massive commodities downturn, the future of the Latin American political landscape might again become volatile.

Calls for Ethics Inquiry Regarding Senior White House Adviser’s Ivanka Trump Promotion

A government ethics advisory body stated last week that Senior White House adviser Kellyanne Conway should be investigated over her promotion of Ivanka Trump’s products. In a letter on 14 February, it advised the White House to investigate and possibly discipline Ms Conway.

The Office of Government Ethics (OGE) found reason to believe that Ms Conway had violated ethnics rules. The statement comes just five days after she urged people to purchase the president’s daughter’s range on Fox News. Her comments prompted complaints from both Democrats and Republicans, who have now been backed by the OGE, which is an independent body.

The inquiry is likely to add pressure to Donald Trump’s administration, in a week where national security adviser Michael Flynn was forced to step down over his contact with the Russian ambassador. So far, the White House has stood behind Ms Conway, who earlier this month urged people to buy after retailer Nordstrom dropped Ivanka’s clothing line, citing a lack of sales. Press secretary Sean Spicer did however disclose that she had been counselled following the incident, however the OGE letter noted that it had received no notice of disciplinary or any corrective action against Ms Conway. The letter notes there is strong reason to believe that Ms Conway has violated the Standards of Conduct and that disciplinary actions is warranted. It recommended that the investigation and any disciplinary action be taken by 28 February.

Ethics rules state officials cannot use their position for personal gain. The letter says that there is no doubt that Ms Conway appeared on television in her official capacity, as she sat in front of the White House seal and next to an American flag.

Republicans Call for Investigation of Flynn’s Contact with Russia

Last week, leading members of the United States Republican Party joined calls for a wide investigation into the former national security adviser’s links with Russia.

On 13 February, Michael Flynn resigned from his post over claims that he discussed US sanctions with Russia before President Donald Trump took office. On 14 February, a White House spokesman disclosed that President Trump knew weeks ago that there were problems with the Russia phone calls, however calls for an independent investigation have encountered a cold response from some senior Republicans.

The development came as the New York Times reported that phone records and intercepted calls show that members of Mr Trump’s presidential campaign, as well as other Trump associates, had repeated contacts with senior Russian intelligence officials in the year before the election. However, officials spoken to by the newspaper have disclosed that they had not yet seen evidence that the Trump campaign colluded with Russia on the hacking of the Democratic National Committee or to influence the election. As well as an FBI investigation into the matter, both the Senate and House intelligence committees are already examining Russian involvement in the election, though it currently remains unclear whether the latest claims will be included in their scope.

Mr Flynn stood down over allegations that he discussed US sanctions with a Russian envoy in December 2016, before Mr Trump took office. The conversations took place about the time that then-President Barack Obama was imposing retaliatory measures on Russia following reports that it attempted to sway the US election in Mr Trump’s favor. Mr Flynn could have broken the law, known as the Logan Act, by conducting US diplomacy as a private citizen before he was appointed as national security advisers.

Initially, Mr Flynn, who is a retired lieutenant-general, denied having discussed sanctions with Ambassador Sergei Kislyak, while Vice President Mike Pence publicly denied the allegations on his behalf. While the White House admitted that it had been warned about the contacts on 26 January, President Trump initially concluded that Mr Flynn had not broken any law. According to White House spokesman Sean Spicer, White House lawyers then conducted a review and questioned Mr Flynn before reaching the same conclusion as the president, however by that point the trust had gone. On 14 February, White House Counsellor Kellyanne Conway disclosed that in the end, it was misleading the vice-president that made the situation unsustainable. According to US media, Mr Flynn was also reportedly questioned by FBI agents in his first days as national security adviser.

In an interview conducted with the conservative website the Daily Caller on 13 February, and published on 14 February, Mr Flynn disclosed that he “crossed no lines” in his conversation with the ambassador, adding that he discussed the expulsion of 35 Russian diplomats over alleged hacking ahead of of the lection, but “it wasn’t about sanctions.” He went on to say that he was concerned that the apparently classified information had been linked, adding “in some of these cases, you’re talking about stuff that’s taken off of a classified system nad given to a reporters…That’s a crime.”

On 14 February, US House Intelligence Committee Chairman Devin Nunes told reporters that he wanted to examine the leaks, stating that the FBI should explain why Mr Flynn’s conversation had been recorded. The Senate’s second-ranking Republican, John Cornyn, and other Republican senators have also called for an investigation into Mr Trump’s connection with Russian officials. Republican John McCain, who is the Chairman of the senate Armed Services Committee, disclosed that Mr Flynn’s resignation was a “troubling indication of the dysfunction of the current national security apparatus,” which raised questions about Mr Trump’s intentions towards Russia.

While Mr Flynn has resigned, Democrat Adam Schiff, a member of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, disclosed that his departure will not end questions about contacts between the president’s campaign and Russia. However there are various ways that these questions could be answered. Two Democratic members of the House of Representatives have demanded a classified briefing to Congress on Michael Flynn by the justice department and FBI. Several House Democrats had already called on Oversight Committee Chairman Jason Chaffetz to launch an investigation into Mr Flynn’s ties to Russia.

Canada’s Trudeau Choses Low Key Approach to New US President

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is opting a low-key approach to dealing with United States President Donald Trump – seeking to avoid clashes while indirectly signalling the two leaders’ difference to a domestic audience.

Insiders have acknowledged that the cautious strategy could anger progressives whose support helped bring Mr Trudeau to power in 2015, however they say that for now, he has no choice but to maintain a low key approach, as Canada sends 75 percent of its exports to the US and could suffer if it were to be targeted by Trump’s administration.

While Mr Trudeau maintained a close friendship with former President Barack Obama, Canadian prime ministers have not always had close ties with US presidents. Insiders however have noted that few in Ottawa have experienced anything like Mr Trump. While Canada regards the US as its closest ally, Mr Trudeau has yet to visit Washington to meet with Mr Trump. According to people familiar with the matter, a visit tentatively scheduled at the beginning of this month was cancelled after a shooter killed six Muslims in a Quebec mosque. No new date has been set.

According to Michael Kergin, a former Canadian ambassador to Washington, Mr Trudeau’s caution has been wise, stating “he’s been playing it pretty well by restraining the temptation to be publicly critical of the president.” Kergin went on to say that Mr Trudeau was also right not to follow British Prime Minister Theresa May in rushing to Washington to push for closer ties only to watch President Trump make an unpopular move on immigration after she left.

Mr Trudeau however has taken indirect shots – when Mr Trump signed orders banning people from seven Muslim-majority countries, Mr Trudeau tweeted that Canada was open to those fleeing war. Furthermore, while his chief spokeswoman blasted US network Fox News late last month for a tweet falsely claiming that the Quebec gunman was of Moroccan origin, she said nothing publicly when Trump’s spokesman said that the attack on Muslims showed why it was important to suspend immigration from Muslim nations. This approach however has angered many in Canada, including the opposition New Democrats, who have called on the Prime Minister to denounce Mr Trump’s “racist” immigration policy. In turn, members of Mr Trudeau’s team have acknowledged that over time, the Liberals could lose support before a 2019 election if the prime minister is deemed not tot be standing up for Canadian values, such as inclusiveness.